30 KiB
30 KiB
10. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS (2026-2028)
10.1 Assumptions Clés
Revenue Assumptions
MODÈLE BI-CONTINENTAL: US + AFRIQUE
Marchés géographiques:
- An 1: 67% US ($130K) + 33% Afrique ($50K) = $180K total
- An 2: 59% US ($270K) + 41% Afrique ($150K) = $420K total
- An 3: 64% US ($550K) + 36% Afrique ($300K) = $850K total
TRANSFORM Programs:
Marché US:
- Growth tier: 4 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$8,997/an
- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$23,997/an
- Transform tier: 1 client An 1 → 3 An 3, @$59,997/an
- Renewal rate: 70% An 2, 80% An 3
Marché Afrique (Pricing PPP-adjusted: -50%):
- Growth tier: 3 clients An 1 → 12 An 3, @$4,997/an
- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 8 An 3, @$11,997/an
- Transform tier: 0 clients An 1 → 2 An 3, @$29,997/an
- Renewal rate: 65% An 2, 75% An 3 (légèrement inférieur)
ADVISORY Retainers:
- US: $10,000/mois × 6 mois engagement
- Africa: $3,500/mois × 6 mois engagement
- Clients: 1 US An 1, 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3
- Renewal/extension: 50%
ACCELERATOR Intensives:
- US: $25,000/participant
- Africa: $12,000/participant
- Cohorts: 1 US An 1 (3-4 participants), 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3
PLATFORM Membership:
- US: $2,997/an
- Africa: $1,497/an
- Members: 20 US + 10 Africa An 1, 65 US + 35 Africa An 2, 90 US + 60 Africa An 3
- Churn: 30% An 1, 25% An 2, 20% An 3
Cost Assumptions
Personnel (% of revenue):
- An 1: 48% (Founder + VA + part-time)
- An 2: 62% (adds Director + Sales Manager + FT Marketing)
- An 3: 60% (adds 2 coaches + Ops Manager, economy of scale)
Marketing:
- An 1: $50,000 (28% revenue) - heavy investment launch bi-continental
- An 2: $80,000 (19% revenue) - scale channels US + Africa
- An 3: $120,000 (14% revenue) - optimize & expand + anglophone Africa
Technology (via Lions Dev partnership):
- An 1: $30,000 (17% revenue) - MVP plateforme + SaaS tools
- Lions Dev: $20,000 (développement MVP)
- SaaS Stack: $8,000 (HubSpot, Zoom, etc.)
- Security/Compliance: $2,000
- An 2: $65,000 (15% revenue) - évolutions + scale
- Lions Dev: $30,000 (features + intégrations)
- SaaS Stack: $15,000 (plus d'utilisateurs)
- Security/Compliance: $5,000
- IA/ML Infrastructure (début): $15,000
- An 3: $115,000 (14% revenue) - IA integration Phase 2
- Lions Dev: $45,000 (IA + automation)
- SaaS Stack: $25,000 (scale)
- Security/Compliance: $10,000
- IA/ML Infrastructure: $35,000
Économies vs plan initial: -$60,000 sur 3 ans (repositionnement IA à Phase 2)
Other Opex: 12-15% revenue (office, insurance, legal, misc)
10.2 Profit & Loss (Income Statement)
Year 1 (2026) - Detailed
Revenue Breakdown (Modèle Bi-Continental)
TRANSFORM Programs:
| Marché | Tier | Clients | Price | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Growth | 4 | $8,997 | $35,988 |
| Scale | 2 | $23,997 | $47,994 | |
| Transform | 1 | $59,997 | $59,997 | |
| Subtotal US | 7 | $143,979 | ||
| AFRICA | Growth | 3 | $4,997 | $14,991 |
| Scale | 2 | $11,997 | $23,994 | |
| Transform | 0 | $29,997 | $0 | |
| Subtotal AFRICA | 5 | $38,985 | ||
| TOTAL TRANSFORM | 12 | $182,964 |
ADVISORY Retainers:
| Marché | Clients | Durée | Taux mensuel | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1 | 6 mois | $10,000 | $60,000 |
| TOTAL ADVISORY | 1 | $60,000 |
ACCELERATOR Intensives:
| Marché | Cohorts | Participants | Prix/participant | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1 | 3 | $25,000 | $75,000 |
| TOTAL ACCELERATOR | 1 | 3 | $75,000 |
PLATFORM Membership:
| Marché | Membres (avg) | Prix annuel | Revenue brute | Churn 30% | Revenue nette |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 20 | $2,997 | $59,940 | -$17,982 | $41,958 |
| Africa | 10 | $1,497 | $14,970 | -$4,491 | $10,479 |
| TOTAL PLATFORM | 30 | $74,910 | -$22,473 | $52,437 |
TOTAL REVENUE AN 1: $370,401 (Upside scenario)
Baseline Conservative Projection: $180,000 (49% attainment rate - très conservateur)
Répartition géographique (Conservative):
- US: $130,000 (72% du baseline)
- Afrique: $50,000 (28% du baseline)
Revenue by Quarter (Conservative $180K)
| Quarter | US Revenue | Africa Revenue | Total | Cumulative | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $12,000 | $3,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | Slow start, 2-3 clients (US + Africa soft launch) |
| Q2 2026 | $27,000 | $8,000 | $35,000 | $50,000 | Momentum US, premiers clients Africa |
| Q3 2026 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $105,000 | Platform launches, retainer US, scale Africa |
| Q4 2026 | $51,000 | $24,000 | $75,000 | $180,000 | Accelerator US, croissance forte Africa |
Mix géographique par trimestre:
- Q1: 80% US / 20% Africa (soft launch Africa)
- Q2: 77% US / 23% Africa
- Q3: 73% US / 27% Africa
- Q4: 68% US / 32% Africa
- Moyenne An 1: 72% US / 28% Africa
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
| Item | Amount | % Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Coach/Consultant Contractors (if needed) | $10,000 | 5.6% |
| Platform SaaS costs (per user) | $3,000 | 1.7% |
| Workshop venues/materials | $2,000 | 1.1% |
| Total COGS | $15,000 | 8.3% |
Gross Margin: $165,000 (91.7%)
Operating Expenses
| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll & Benefits | |||
| - Founder/CEO salary | $60,000 | 33.3% | Below market (reinvesting) |
| - Virtual Assistant (full-time) | $30,000 | 16.7% | Philippines-based |
| - Content Creator (part-time) | $18,000 | 10.0% | Contractor |
| - Payroll taxes (15%) | $16,200 | 9.0% | |
| Subtotal Payroll | $124,200 | 69.0% | |
| Marketing & Sales | |||
| - Digital advertising | $20,000 | 11.1% | Google, LinkedIn ads |
| - Content production | $10,000 | 5.6% | Video, blog, podcast |
| - Events & networking | $8,000 | 4.4% | Speaking, conferences |
| - SEO & website | $7,000 | 3.9% | Agency + tools |
| - Other marketing | $5,000 | 2.8% | Misc |
| Subtotal Marketing | $50,000 | 27.8% | |
| Technology (via Lions Dev partnership) | |||
| - Lions Dev MVP Platform | $20,000 | 11.1% | Développement plateforme custom |
| - SaaS stack | $8,000 | 4.4% | HubSpot, Zoom, tools |
| - Security & Compliance | $2,000 | 1.1% | SSL, backup, monitoring |
| Subtotal Technology | $30,000 | 16.7% | |
| General & Administrative | |||
| - Office/coworking | $6,000 | 3.3% | Flexible space |
| - Insurance | $4,000 | 2.2% | Liability, E&O |
| - Legal & accounting | $8,000 | 4.4% | Corp + bookkeeping |
| - Travel | $5,000 | 2.8% | Client meetings, events |
| - Misc/contingency | $5,000 | 2.8% | Buffer |
| Subtotal G&A | $28,000 | 15.6% | |
| TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES | $232,200 | 129.0% |
Économies Tech: -$5,000 vs plan original (grâce à Lions Dev partnership)
Year 1 Bottom Line
| Metric | Amount | % Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $180,000 | 100.0% |
| - US | $130,000 | 72.2% |
| - Africa | $50,000 | 27.8% |
| COGS | -$15,000 | 8.3% |
| Gross Profit | $165,000 | 91.7% |
| Operating Expenses | -$232,200 | 129.0% |
| EBITDA | -$67,200 | -37.3% |
| Interest | $0 | 0.0% |
| Taxes | $0 | 0.0% |
| NET INCOME | -$67,200 | -37.3% |
Analysis:
- Perte An 1 attendue (année d'investissement bi-continental)
- Améliorée vs plan initial: -$67K vs -$72K (économie $5K grâce Lions Dev)
- Couverte par $75K capital initial + revenus
- Modèle bi-continental ajoute complexité mais diversifie risque
Break-even: Mois 14-15 (Q2 An 2) quand base clients scale sur deux marchés.
Year 2 (2027) - Summary
Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental)
| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRANSFORM Programs | 18 | $240,000 | 10 | $90,000 | $330,000 | +80% |
| ADVISORY Retainers | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 1 (avg) | $21,000 | $141,000 | +135% |
| ACCELERATOR Intensives | 6 part. | $150,000 | 4 part. | $48,000 | $198,000 | +164% |
| PLATFORM Membership | 65 avg | $145,000 | 35 avg | $37,000 | $182,000 | +247% |
| TOTAL | $655,000 | $196,000 | $851,000 | +373% |
Conservative Projection Used: $420,000 (49% of potential)
- US: $270,000 (64%)
- Africa: $150,000 (36%)
Répartition géographique An 2: 64% US / 36% Africa (croissance forte Africa)
Expenses Summary
| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| COGS | $35,000 | 8.3% | Scale légèrement |
| Gross Profit | $385,000 | 91.7% | |
| Payroll | $240,000 | 57.1% | +Director, Sales, Marketing FT |
| Marketing | $80,000 | 19.0% | Scale US + Africa |
| Technology (Lions Dev) | $65,000 | 15.5% | Évolutions + début IA |
| - Lions Dev | $30,000 | 7.1% | Features + intégrations |
| - SaaS Stack | $15,000 | 3.6% | Plus d'utilisateurs |
| - Security | $5,000 | 1.2% | Compliance renforcée |
| - IA/ML (début Phase 2) | $15,000 | 3.6% | Infrastructure IA |
| G&A | $45,000 | 10.7% | Scale opérations |
| Total Opex | $430,000 | 102.4% | |
| EBITDA | -$45,000 | -10.7% | |
| NET INCOME | -$45,000 | -10.7% |
Analysis:
- Perte An 2 plus importante que prévu original (investissement Tech +$25K pour IA)
- Investissement stratégique dans Phase 2 IA (2027 début)
- Croissance forte Africa justifie investissement
- Break-even prévu Q3-Q4 An 2 avec scaling
Year 3 (2028) - Summary
Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental Mature)
| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRANSFORM Programs | 23 | $450,000 | 22 | $180,000 | $630,000 | +91% |
| ADVISORY Retainers | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 2 (avg) | $42,000 | $162,000 | +15% |
| ACCELERATOR Intensives | 8 part. | $200,000 | 8 part. | $96,000 | $296,000 | +49% |
| PLATFORM Membership | 90 avg | $200,000 | 60 avg | $65,000 | $265,000 | +46% |
| TOTAL | $970,000 | $383,000 | $1,353,000 | +59% |
Conservative Projection Used: $850,000 (63% of potential)
- US: $550,000 (65%)
- Africa: $300,000 (35%)
Répartition géographique An 3: 65% US / 35% Africa (équilibre mature)
Expenses Summary
| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| COGS | $70,000 | 8.2% | Scale bi-continental |
| Gross Profit | $780,000 | 91.8% | |
| Payroll | $425,000 | 50.0% | +2 coaches, Ops Manager |
| Marketing | $120,000 | 14.1% | Optimize + expansion anglophone |
| Technology (Lions Dev + IA) | $115,000 | 13.5% | Full IA Phase 2 |
| - Lions Dev | $45,000 | 5.3% | IA integration + automation |
| - SaaS Stack | $25,000 | 2.9% | Enterprise scale |
| - Security | $10,000 | 1.2% | Compliance multi-pays |
| - IA/ML Infrastructure | $35,000 | 4.1% | Full IA deployment |
| G&A | $75,000 | 8.8% | Scale mature |
| Total Opex | $735,000 | 86.5% | |
| EBITDA | $45,000 | 5.3% | |
| Taxes (25%) | -$11,250 | 1.3% | |
| NET INCOME | $33,750 | 4.0% |
Analysis:
- Profitable An 3 malgré investissement IA massif ($50K)
- Marges plus serrées que prévu initial (4% vs 9.7%) à cause de Tech investment
- Investissement IA = pari sur croissance An 4-5 (automation + scale)
- Modèle bi-continental mature: 65/35 US/Africa
- An 4 projection: Marges remontent à 15-20% quand IA déployée (économies d'échelle)
10.3 Three-Year P&L Summary (Modèle Bi-Continental + Lions Dev)
| Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | $180,000 | $420,000 | $850,000 |
| - US | $130,000 (72%) | $270,000 (64%) | $550,000 (65%) |
| - Africa | $50,000 (28%) | $150,000 (36%) | $300,000 (35%) |
| COGS | $15,000 | $35,000 | $70,000 |
| GROSS PROFIT | $165,000 | $385,000 | $780,000 |
| Gross Margin % | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% |
| Payroll | $124,200 | $240,000 | $425,000 |
| Marketing | $50,000 | $80,000 | $120,000 |
| Technology (Lions Dev) | $30,000 | $65,000 | $115,000 |
| G&A | $28,000 | $45,000 | $75,000 |
| Operating Expenses | $232,200 | $430,000 | $735,000 |
| EBITDA | -$67,200 | -$45,000 | $45,000 |
| EBITDA Margin % | -37.3% | -10.7% | 5.3% |
| Taxes | $0 | $0 | $11,250 |
| NET INCOME | -$67,200 | -$45,000 | $33,750 |
| Net Margin % | -37.3% | -10.7% | 4.0% |
Notes importantes:
- Modèle bi-continental ajoute complexité mais diversifie revenus et risque
- Technology costs higher An 2-3 (Phase 2 IA: +$50K investissement total)
- Profitability An 3 réduite vs plan initial (4% vs 9.7%) due à investissement IA stratégique
- Lions Dev revenues via GBCM: $40-50K An 1, $110-150K An 2, $225-345K An 3 (total $375-545K)
- Break-even Q3-Q4 An 2, puis profitabilité croissante
- An 4+ projection: Marges 15-20% quand IA deployed + scaling economies
10.4 Cash Flow Statement
Year 1 Cash Flow (Bi-Continental Launch)
| Category | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Activities | ||
| Net Income | -$67,200 | Amélioration vs initial (-$72K) |
| Add: Non-cash expenses | $0 | No depreciation An 1 |
| Changes in Working Capital | $15,000 | Prepayments from clients (US + Africa) |
| Cash from Operations | -$52,200 | |
| Investing Activities | ||
| Platform development (Lions Dev) | -$20,000 | MVP custom (vs $35K initial) |
| SaaS prepayments (annual) | -$8,000 | Discounts for annual prepay |
| Equipment/furniture | -$3,000 | Laptop, office basics |
| Cash from Investing | -$31,000 | |
| Financing Activities | ||
| Founder capital injection | $75,000 | Initial investment |
| Loans | $0 | Bootstrap |
| Cash from Financing | $75,000 | |
| NET CASH FLOW | -$8,200 | |
| Beginning Cash | $0 | |
| Ending Cash | -$8,200 |
Analysis:
- Amélioration significative vs plan initial: -$8K vs -$20K cash flow
- Lions Dev partnership économise $15K cash An 1 (MVP moins cher)
- $75K capital suffisant pour An 1 avec buffer confortable
- Modèle bi-continental n'augmente pas cash needs An 1
Year 2-3 Cash Flow Summary
| Year 2 | Year 3 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash from Operations | -$20,000 | $70,000 |
| Cash from Investing | -$35,000 | -$50,000 |
| Cash from Financing | $0 | $0 |
| Net Cash Flow | -$55,000 | $20,000 |
| Beginning Cash | -$8,200 | -$63,200 |
| Ending Cash | -$63,200 | -$43,200 |
Analysis Cash Flow:
- Year 2: Cash flow négatif à cause investissements Tech IA ($65K total)
- Year 3: Cash flow positif malgré investissement massif IA ($115K)
- Besoin capital additionnel An 2: ~$50-60K pour couvrir investments IA
- Options financement An 2:
- Ligne de crédit $50K
- Pré-vente clients (advance payments)
- Revenue-based financing
- An 3 onwards: Cash flow positif et croissant avec IA deployed
10.5 Lions Dev Revenue Projections (Partenaire Stratégique)
Modèle Économique Lions Dev via GBCM
Structure:
- Contrats au forfait - GBCM paie Lions Dev pour développement plateforme
- Commission sur projets clients - Lions Dev reçoit 10-15% des revenus projets tech clients GBCM
- Recurring maintenance - Contrats mensuels maintenance après go-live
Revenus Lions Dev projetés
| Source | An 1 (2026) | An 2 (2027) | An 3 (2028) | Total 3 ans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBCM Direct (plateforme) | $20,000 | $30,000 | $45,000 | $95,000 |
| Projets Clients (3-4 An 1) | $20-30K | $80-120K | $180-300K | $280-450K |
| - Commission moyenne | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Maintenance (recurring) | $0 | $5,000 | $15,000 | $20,000 |
| TOTAL Lions Dev | $40-50K | $115-155K | $240-360K | $395-565K |
Breakdown projets clients:
- An 1: 3-4 projets @ $7-10K moyenne = $20-30K
- An 2: 10-12 projets @ $8-12K moyenne = $80-120K
- An 3: 20-25 projets @ $9-15K moyenne = $180-300K
Impact sur les deux entreprises
| Métrique | GBCM | Lions Dev |
|---|---|---|
| Revenus 3 ans | $1,450K | $395-565K |
| Tech costs GBCM | -$210K (vs $270K initial) | +$210K revenues tech |
| Synergies | Économie $60K, tech expert | Pipeline projets garanti |
| Risque | Dépendance 1 vendor | Dépendance 1 gros client |
| Mitigation | SLA stricts, backup plan | Diversifier clients hors GBCM |
Win-Win:
- GBCM: Tech de qualité, coûts optimisés, partenaire local Afrique (Abidjan)
- Lions Dev: $400-550K revenues garantis 3 ans, showcase clients B2B, expansion US
10.6 Balance Sheet (Simplified)
Year 1
| ASSETS | Amount |
|---|---|
| Cash | -$20,000 |
| Accounts Receivable | $25,000 |
| Prepaid Expenses | $5,000 |
| Total Current Assets | $10,000 |
| Platform (capitalized) | $35,000 |
| Equipment | $3,000 |
| Less: Depreciation | $0 |
| Total Fixed Assets | $38,000 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | $48,000 |
| LIABILITIES & EQUITY | Amount |
|---|---|
| Accounts Payable | $15,000 |
| Accrued Expenses | $10,000 |
| Total Current Liabilities | $25,000 |
| Long-term Debt | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $25,000 |
| Owner's Equity | $75,000 |
| Retained Earnings | -$52,000 |
| Total Equity | $23,000 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY | $48,000 |
10.6 Key Financial Metrics
Unit Economics (Per Client)
TRANSFORM Programs (Average)
| Metric | Growth | Scale | Transform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $8,997 | $23,997 | $59,997 |
| COGS | $720 | $1,920 | $4,800 |
| Gross Profit | $8,277 | $22,077 | $55,197 |
| Gross Margin | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) | $1,500 | $2,500 | $5,000 |
| Onboarding Cost | $500 | $1,000 | $2,000 |
| Total Acquisition | $2,000 | $3,500 | $7,000 |
| Contribution Margin | $6,277 | $18,577 | $48,197 |
| LTV (3 year, 60% retention) | $16,200 | $43,200 | $108,000 |
| LTV:CAC Ratio | 8:1 | 12:1 | 15:1 |
Analysis: Excellent unit economics across all tiers. Healthy LTV:CAC (target >3:1, achieved 8-15:1).
PLATFORM Membership
| Metric | Amount |
|---|---|
| Annual Price | $2,997 |
| COGS (hosting, support) | $150 |
| Gross Profit | $2,847 |
| Gross Margin | 95% |
| CAC | $100 |
| Contribution Margin Yr 1 | $2,747 |
| LTV (3 years, 25% churn) | $6,700 |
| LTV:CAC Ratio | 67:1 |
Analysis: Outstanding economics if churn controlled. Pure scale play.
Profitability Metrics
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% | >85% ✅ |
| EBITDA Margin | -40.1% | -4.8% | 12.9% | >15% An 3 ❌ |
| Net Margin | -40.1% | -4.8% | 9.7% | >10% An 3 ❌ |
| ROE | N/A | N/A | 359% | >30% ✅ |
Note: Margins intentionally low An 1-2 (investment phase). An 3 close to target, An 4 expect >20%.
Efficiency Metrics
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per Employee | $60K | $70K | $106K |
| Payroll as % Revenue | 69% | 57% | 50% |
| CAC Payback Period | 2 months | 1.5 months | 1 month |
| Cash Conversion Cycle | 30 days | 20 days | 15 days |
10.7 Scenario Analysis (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)
Conservative (Baseline in Projections)
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $180,000 | $130K (72%) | $50K (28%) | -$67,200 | -$67,200 |
| 2 | $420,000 | $270K (64%) | $150K (36%) | -$45,000 | -$45,000 |
| 3 | $850,000 | $550K (65%) | $300K (35%) | $45,000 | $33,750 |
Assumptions:
- 50% client acquisition targets
- Higher churn (30% An 1, 25% An 2)
- Slower ramp Africa (soft launch An 1)
- Full IA investment An 2-3 ($50K)
Realistic (50% Probability)
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $280,000 | $200K (71%) | $80K (29%) | -$30,000 | -$30,000 |
| 2 | $650,000 | $420K (65%) | $230K (35%) | $80,000 | $60,000 |
| 3 | $1,200,000 | $780K (65%) | $420K (35%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |
Assumptions:
- 75% client acquisition targets
- Industry-standard churn (25% An 1, 20% An 2)
- Forte croissance Africa An 2-3
- IA déployée début An 3, impacts positifs
Optimistic (20% Probability)
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $375,000 | $265K (71%) | $110K (29%) | $25,000 | $18,750 |
| 2 | $850,000 | $545K (64%) | $305K (36%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |
| 3 | $1,600,000 | $1,040K (65%) | $560K (35%) | $400,000 | $300,000 |
Assumptions:
- Full client targets achieved (100% An 1)
- Best-in-class retention/referrals (<20% churn)
- Africa explosive growth (3x vs conservative)
- IA déployée mi-An 2, ROI immédiat
- Platform membership viral (200+ members An 3)
10.8 Break-Even Analysis
Break-Even Calculation (Monthly)
Fixed Costs (monthly average An 1):
- Payroll: $10,350
- Marketing: $4,167
- Technology: $2,917
- G&A: $2,333
- Total Fixed: $19,767/month
Variable Costs: ~8% of revenue (COGS)
Contribution Margin: 92% (after variable costs)
Break-Even Revenue = Fixed Costs ÷ Contribution Margin = $19,767 ÷ 0.92 = $21,486/month
Break-Even in Clients:
- 2-3 TRANSFORM clients (depending on tier)
- OR 1 ADVISORY retainer
- OR 1 Accelerator cohort/quarter
- OR 70-80 Platform members
Timeline to Break-Even: Month 14-16 (Q2 An 2) in conservative scenario
10.9 Funding Requirements & Use of Funds
Capital Required (Modèle Bi-Continental)
Year 1 Initial: $75,000 Year 2 Additional: $50-60,000 (pour investissements IA Phase 2) Total 3 ans: $125-135,000
Use of Funds Breakdown Year 1
| Category | Amount | % | Justification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Development (Lions Dev) | $20,000 | 27% | MVP custom software (6-mois, via Lions Dev partnership) |
| Marketing & Launch (Bi-Continental) | $25,000 | 33% | Pre-launch + 6 mois ads US + Africa |
| Technology Setup (SaaS + Tools) | $10,000 | 13% | HubSpot, Zoom, hosting, security (annual prepay) |
| Legal & Formation (Multi-pays) | $10,000 | 13% | LLC US, compliance Africa, contracts |
| Working Capital | $10,000 | 13% | Buffer 2-3 mois runway bi-continental |
| TOTAL | $75,000 | 100% |
Économies vs plan initial: Lions Dev partnership réduit Platform Dev de $35K → $20K (-$15K)
Use of Funds Year 2 (Additionnel)
| Category | Amount | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| IA/ML Infrastructure (Phase 2 début) | $15,000 | OpenAI API, cloud compute, data pipeline |
| Lions Dev - Features IA | $20,000 | Développement features IA integration |
| Marketing Scale (Africa expansion) | $15,000 | Scale Africa francophone + prep anglophone |
| Working Capital | $10,000 | Buffer croissance bi-continentale |
| TOTAL | $60,000 |
Funding Sources (Recommended)
AN 1 - Option A: Bootstrap (Preferred)
- Founder capital: $50,000 (personal investment)
- Early client prepayments: $25,000 (2-3 clients US + 1-2 Africa pre-sold)
- Pros: Full ownership, discipline, validation marché
- Cons: Limited runway, stress bi-continental
AN 1 - Option B: Friends & Family
- Founder: $50,000
- F&F: $25,000 (SAFE note, 15% discount, $1M cap)
- Pros: Faster launch bi-continental, buffer Africa
- Cons: Outside capital, expectations
AN 2 - Financing IA Phase 2 ($50-60K needed)
- Option 1: Revenue-based financing (8-12% of MRR jusqu'à $75K)
- Option 2: Ligne de crédit SBA ($50K @ 8%)
- Option 3: Strategic partner (Lions Dev equity stake 5-10% pour $50K)
- Option 4: Advance payments clients (pré-vente 5-10 clients An 2)
Recommendation:
- An 1: Option A (Bootstrap) - validation modèle bi-continental
- An 2: Option 1 ou 4 (revenue-based ou advance payments) - évite dilution, aligné croissance
10.10 Return on Investment (ROI)
Founder ROI (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)
Investment:
- An 1: $75,000 (capital initial)
- An 2: $60,000 (financement IA, assumé dette/RBF)
- Total: $135,000 (sur 3 ans)
Returns (3-year horizon) - Modèle révisé avec IA investment:
| Scenario | Cumulative Profit | Equity Value (3x EBITDA) | Total Return | ROI | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | -$79K | $135K (3 × $45K) | $56K | 41% | 12% |
| Realistic | $50K | $450K (3 × $150K) | $500K | 370% | 83% |
| Optimistic | $200K | $900K (3 × $300K) | $1,100K | 815% | 142% |
Payback Period:
- Conservative: 42+ months (An 4)
- Realistic: 24 months (fin An 2)
- Optimistic: 15 months (mid An 2)
Analysis nouvelle stratégie:
- Conservative scenario moins attractif court terme (41% ROI vs 427% initial)
- MAIS: Investissement IA = pari sur An 4-5 (automation, scale, margins 15-20%)
- Realistic/Optimistic scenarios restent très attractifs (370-815% ROI)
- Trade-off: Court terme moins profitable, mais long terme exponential
- An 4 projection (non montré): $1.5M revenue, 18% EBITDA = $270K, ROI devient >500%
Comparaison modèles:
| Métrique | Plan Initial (sans IA) | Nouveau Plan (IA Phase 2) | Différence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment total | $75K | $135K | +$60K |
| An 3 EBITDA (conservative) | $110K | $45K | -$65K |
| An 3 Net Income | $82.5K | $33.7K | -$48.8K |
| ROI 3 ans | 427% | 41% | -386% |
| An 5 EBITDA (projected) | $250K | $450K | +$200K |
| An 5 ROI (projected) | 700% | 1,200% | +500% |
Conclusion ROI:
- Si objectif = profitabilité rapide An 3: Plan initial meilleur
- Si objectif = scale massif An 4-5 avec IA: Nouveau plan meilleur
- Nouveau plan = pari sur technologie pour unlock croissance exponentielle
- Bi-continental + IA = moat plus fort, mais capital-intensive
10.11 Sensitivity Analysis
Key Variables Impact on Year 3 EBITDA
| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clients Acquired | -$50K | $30K | $110K | $190K | $270K |
| Avg Price | $10K | $60K | $110K | $160K | $210K |
| Retention Rate | $45K | $77K | $110K | $142K | $175K |
| CAC | $135K | $122K | $110K | $97K | $85K |
| Payroll | $225K | $167K | $110K | $52K | -$5K |
Most Sensitive to:
- Client Acquisition (#1 priority - marketing, sales)
- Pricing (justify value, upsell higher tiers)
- Payroll efficiency (hire smart, productivity)
Least Sensitive to:
- CAC (within reasonable range $1K-$4K, manageable)
- Retention (strong even at -20%, but optimize for upside)
10.12 Summary & Financial Health Indicators
Financial Strength (Year 3) - Modèle Bi-Continental + IA
| Indicator | Value (Nouveau) | Value (Initial) | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | ||||
| Cash Balance | -$43K (négatif) | $120K | >3 months opex | ⚠️ Attention |
| Current Ratio | 1.8 | 3.5 | >1.5 | ✅ Acceptable |
| Profitability | ||||
| Gross Margin | 91.8% | 91.8% | >80% | ✅ Excellent |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.3% | 12.9% | >10% | ⚠️ Below target |
| Net Margin | 4.0% | 9.7% | >8% | ⚠️ Below target |
| Efficiency | ||||
| Revenue per Employee | $106K | $106K | >$100K | ✅ Strong |
| LTV:CAC (blended US+Africa) | 8-12:1 | 10-15:1 | >3:1 | ✅ Outstanding |
| CAC Payback | 1.5 months | 1 month | <6 months | ✅ Excellent |
| Growth | ||||
| YoY Revenue Growth | 102% (Y2→Y3) | 102% | >30% | ✅ Exceptional |
| Customer Growth (global) | 89% | 89% | >25% | ✅ Strong |
| Geographic Diversification | 65/35 US/Africa | 100% US | Diverse | ✅ Strong |
Overall Financial Health: MODERATE ⚠️
Trade-offs du nouveau modèle:
| Aspect | ➕ Positif | ➖ Négatif |
|---|---|---|
| Revenus | Diversification géographique, TAM plus large | Prix Africa -50%, complexity |
| Profitabilité | Gross margins excellentes (91.8%) | EBITDA/Net margins serrés (investment IA) |
| Cash Flow | Lions Dev partnership économise cash | Besoin $60K additionnel An 2 |
| Risque | Diversifié sur 2 continents | Dépendance Lions Dev, complexity Africa |
| Croissance | IA unlock scale An 4-5, 2 marchés | Plus lent break-even (Q3-Q4 An 2 vs Q2) |
| Stratégique | Moat technologique fort, first-mover Africa | Capital-intensive, execution risk |
Recommandations Stratégiques
Court Terme (An 1-2):
- ✅ Valider product-market fit US avant scale Africa
- ✅ Bootstrap An 1 - minimiser dilution
- ⚠️ Monitor cash - prévoir financing An 2 ($50-60K)
- ✅ Lions Dev SLAs - mitigate vendor dependency
Moyen Terme (An 2-3): 5. ⚠️ IA ROI critical - si pas de traction, pivot back to manual 6. ✅ Scale Africa - leverage Lions Dev Abidjan presence 7. ✅ Optimize margins - target 10%+ EBITDA An 3 8. ⚠️ Plan An 4 financing - si scale IA successful, raise $200-500K
Alternative: Plan Conservateur sans IA An 2:
- Si cash flow An 2 serré, reporter IA à An 3-4
- Focus sur profitabilité An 2 (bootstrap)
- IA Phase 2 conditionné à profitabilité établie
Conclusion Financière:
Le modèle bi-continental + IA Phase 2 est:
- ✅ Viable si execution excellente
- ⚠️ Capital-intensive - besoin $135K sur 3 ans (vs $75K initial)
- ✅ High-growth potential - unlock exponential via IA An 4-5
- ⚠️ Higher risk - complexity géographique + tech
- ✅ Strategic moat - first-mover Africa + tech différentiation
Pour qui?: Founder ambitieux, tech-savvy, comfortable avec risk, vision long-terme (5+ ans)
Alternative safe: Plan initial US-only, IA Phase 3 - ROI 427% An 3, profitable An 3
NEXT: 11-funding-strategy.md - Stratégie de financement détaillée