816 lines
30 KiB
Markdown
816 lines
30 KiB
Markdown
# 10. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS (2026-2028)
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## 10.1 Assumptions Clés
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### Revenue Assumptions
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**MODÈLE BI-CONTINENTAL**: US + AFRIQUE
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**Marchés géographiques**:
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- **An 1**: 67% US ($130K) + 33% Afrique ($50K) = $180K total
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- **An 2**: 59% US ($270K) + 41% Afrique ($150K) = $420K total
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- **An 3**: 64% US ($550K) + 36% Afrique ($300K) = $850K total
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**TRANSFORM Programs**:
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*Marché US*:
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- Growth tier: 4 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$8,997/an
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- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$23,997/an
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- Transform tier: 1 client An 1 → 3 An 3, @$59,997/an
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- Renewal rate: 70% An 2, 80% An 3
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*Marché Afrique* (Pricing PPP-adjusted: -50%):
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- Growth tier: 3 clients An 1 → 12 An 3, @$4,997/an
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- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 8 An 3, @$11,997/an
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- Transform tier: 0 clients An 1 → 2 An 3, @$29,997/an
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- Renewal rate: 65% An 2, 75% An 3 (légèrement inférieur)
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**ADVISORY Retainers**:
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- US: $10,000/mois × 6 mois engagement
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- Africa: $3,500/mois × 6 mois engagement
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- Clients: 1 US An 1, 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3
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- Renewal/extension: 50%
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**ACCELERATOR Intensives**:
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- US: $25,000/participant
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- Africa: $12,000/participant
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- Cohorts: 1 US An 1 (3-4 participants), 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3
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**PLATFORM Membership**:
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- US: $2,997/an
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- Africa: $1,497/an
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- Members: 20 US + 10 Africa An 1, 65 US + 35 Africa An 2, 90 US + 60 Africa An 3
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- Churn: 30% An 1, 25% An 2, 20% An 3
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### Cost Assumptions
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**Personnel** (% of revenue):
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- An 1: 48% (Founder + VA + part-time)
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- An 2: 62% (adds Director + Sales Manager + FT Marketing)
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- An 3: 60% (adds 2 coaches + Ops Manager, economy of scale)
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**Marketing**:
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- An 1: $50,000 (28% revenue) - heavy investment launch bi-continental
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- An 2: $80,000 (19% revenue) - scale channels US + Africa
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- An 3: $120,000 (14% revenue) - optimize & expand + anglophone Africa
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**Technology** (via Lions Dev partnership):
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- **An 1**: $30,000 (17% revenue) - MVP plateforme + SaaS tools
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- Lions Dev: $20,000 (développement MVP)
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- SaaS Stack: $8,000 (HubSpot, Zoom, etc.)
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- Security/Compliance: $2,000
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- **An 2**: $65,000 (15% revenue) - évolutions + scale
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- Lions Dev: $30,000 (features + intégrations)
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- SaaS Stack: $15,000 (plus d'utilisateurs)
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- Security/Compliance: $5,000
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- IA/ML Infrastructure (début): $15,000
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- **An 3**: $115,000 (14% revenue) - IA integration Phase 2
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- Lions Dev: $45,000 (IA + automation)
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- SaaS Stack: $25,000 (scale)
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- Security/Compliance: $10,000
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- IA/ML Infrastructure: $35,000
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**Économies vs plan initial**: -$60,000 sur 3 ans (repositionnement IA à Phase 2)
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**Other Opex**: 12-15% revenue (office, insurance, legal, misc)
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---
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## 10.2 Profit & Loss (Income Statement)
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### Year 1 (2026) - Detailed
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#### Revenue Breakdown (Modèle Bi-Continental)
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**TRANSFORM Programs**:
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| Marché | Tier | Clients | Price | Revenue |
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|--------|------|---------|-------|---------|
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| **US** | Growth | 4 | $8,997 | $35,988 |
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| | Scale | 2 | $23,997 | $47,994 |
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| | Transform | 1 | $59,997 | $59,997 |
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| **Subtotal US** | | **7** | | **$143,979** |
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| **AFRICA** | Growth | 3 | $4,997 | $14,991 |
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| | Scale | 2 | $11,997 | $23,994 |
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| | Transform | 0 | $29,997 | $0 |
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| **Subtotal AFRICA** | | **5** | | **$38,985** |
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| **TOTAL TRANSFORM** | | **12** | | **$182,964** |
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**ADVISORY Retainers**:
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| Marché | Clients | Durée | Taux mensuel | Revenue |
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|--------|---------|-------|--------------|---------|
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| US | 1 | 6 mois | $10,000 | $60,000 |
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| **TOTAL ADVISORY** | **1** | | | **$60,000** |
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**ACCELERATOR Intensives**:
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| Marché | Cohorts | Participants | Prix/participant | Revenue |
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|--------|---------|--------------|------------------|---------|
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| US | 1 | 3 | $25,000 | $75,000 |
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| **TOTAL ACCELERATOR** | **1** | **3** | | **$75,000** |
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**PLATFORM Membership**:
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| Marché | Membres (avg) | Prix annuel | Revenue brute | Churn 30% | Revenue nette |
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|--------|---------------|-------------|---------------|-----------|---------------|
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| US | 20 | $2,997 | $59,940 | -$17,982 | $41,958 |
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| Africa | 10 | $1,497 | $14,970 | -$4,491 | $10,479 |
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| **TOTAL PLATFORM** | **30** | | **$74,910** | **-$22,473** | **$52,437** |
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**TOTAL REVENUE AN 1**: **$370,401** (Upside scenario)
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**Baseline Conservative Projection**: **$180,000** (49% attainment rate - très conservateur)
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**Répartition géographique (Conservative)**:
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- US: $130,000 (72% du baseline)
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- Afrique: $50,000 (28% du baseline)
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#### Revenue by Quarter (Conservative $180K)
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| Quarter | US Revenue | Africa Revenue | Total | Cumulative | Notes |
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|---------|------------|----------------|-------|------------|-------|
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| Q1 2026 | $12,000 | $3,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | Slow start, 2-3 clients (US + Africa soft launch) |
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| Q2 2026 | $27,000 | $8,000 | $35,000 | $50,000 | Momentum US, premiers clients Africa |
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| Q3 2026 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $105,000 | Platform launches, retainer US, scale Africa |
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| Q4 2026 | $51,000 | $24,000 | $75,000 | $180,000 | Accelerator US, croissance forte Africa |
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**Mix géographique par trimestre**:
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- Q1: 80% US / 20% Africa (soft launch Africa)
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- Q2: 77% US / 23% Africa
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- Q3: 73% US / 27% Africa
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- Q4: 68% US / 32% Africa
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- **Moyenne An 1**: 72% US / 28% Africa
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#### Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
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| Item | Amount | % Revenue |
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|------|--------|-----------|
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| Coach/Consultant Contractors (if needed) | $10,000 | 5.6% |
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| Platform SaaS costs (per user) | $3,000 | 1.7% |
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| Workshop venues/materials | $2,000 | 1.1% |
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| **Total COGS** | **$15,000** | **8.3%** |
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**Gross Margin**: $165,000 (91.7%)
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#### Operating Expenses
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| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
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|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
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| **Payroll & Benefits** | | | |
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| - Founder/CEO salary | $60,000 | 33.3% | Below market (reinvesting) |
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| - Virtual Assistant (full-time) | $30,000 | 16.7% | Philippines-based |
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| - Content Creator (part-time) | $18,000 | 10.0% | Contractor |
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| - Payroll taxes (15%) | $16,200 | 9.0% | |
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| **Subtotal Payroll** | **$124,200** | **69.0%** | |
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| **Marketing & Sales** | | | |
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| - Digital advertising | $20,000 | 11.1% | Google, LinkedIn ads |
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| - Content production | $10,000 | 5.6% | Video, blog, podcast |
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| - Events & networking | $8,000 | 4.4% | Speaking, conferences |
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| - SEO & website | $7,000 | 3.9% | Agency + tools |
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| - Other marketing | $5,000 | 2.8% | Misc |
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| **Subtotal Marketing** | **$50,000** | **27.8%** | |
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| **Technology** (via Lions Dev partnership) | | | |
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| - Lions Dev MVP Platform | $20,000 | 11.1% | Développement plateforme custom |
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| - SaaS stack | $8,000 | 4.4% | HubSpot, Zoom, tools |
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| - Security & Compliance | $2,000 | 1.1% | SSL, backup, monitoring |
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| **Subtotal Technology** | **$30,000** | **16.7%** | |
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| **General & Administrative** | | | |
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| - Office/coworking | $6,000 | 3.3% | Flexible space |
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| - Insurance | $4,000 | 2.2% | Liability, E&O |
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| - Legal & accounting | $8,000 | 4.4% | Corp + bookkeeping |
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| - Travel | $5,000 | 2.8% | Client meetings, events |
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| - Misc/contingency | $5,000 | 2.8% | Buffer |
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| **Subtotal G&A** | **$28,000** | **15.6%** | |
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| **TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES** | **$232,200** | **129.0%** | |
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**Économies Tech**: -$5,000 vs plan original (grâce à Lions Dev partnership)
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#### Year 1 Bottom Line
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| Metric | Amount | % Revenue |
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|--------|--------|-----------|
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| **Revenue** | $180,000 | 100.0% |
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| - US | $130,000 | 72.2% |
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| - Africa | $50,000 | 27.8% |
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| **COGS** | -$15,000 | 8.3% |
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| **Gross Profit** | $165,000 | 91.7% |
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| **Operating Expenses** | -$232,200 | 129.0% |
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| **EBITDA** | **-$67,200** | **-37.3%** |
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| **Interest** | $0 | 0.0% |
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| **Taxes** | $0 | 0.0% |
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| **NET INCOME** | **-$67,200** | **-37.3%** |
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**Analysis**:
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- Perte An 1 attendue (année d'investissement bi-continental)
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- Améliorée vs plan initial: -$67K vs -$72K (économie $5K grâce Lions Dev)
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- Couverte par $75K capital initial + revenus
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- Modèle bi-continental ajoute complexité mais diversifie risque
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**Break-even**: Mois 14-15 (Q2 An 2) quand base clients scale sur deux marchés.
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---
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### Year 2 (2027) - Summary
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#### Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental)
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| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
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|---------|------------|------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|--------|
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| **TRANSFORM Programs** | 18 | $240,000 | 10 | $90,000 | $330,000 | +80% |
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| **ADVISORY Retainers** | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 1 (avg) | $21,000 | $141,000 | +135% |
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| **ACCELERATOR Intensives** | 6 part. | $150,000 | 4 part. | $48,000 | $198,000 | +164% |
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| **PLATFORM Membership** | 65 avg | $145,000 | 35 avg | $37,000 | $182,000 | +247% |
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| **TOTAL** | | **$655,000** | | **$196,000** | **$851,000** | **+373%** |
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**Conservative Projection Used**: **$420,000** (49% of potential)
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- US: $270,000 (64%)
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- Africa: $150,000 (36%)
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**Répartition géographique An 2**: 64% US / 36% Africa (croissance forte Africa)
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#### Expenses Summary
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| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
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|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
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| COGS | $35,000 | 8.3% | Scale légèrement |
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| **Gross Profit** | **$385,000** | **91.7%** | |
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| Payroll | $240,000 | 57.1% | +Director, Sales, Marketing FT |
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| Marketing | $80,000 | 19.0% | Scale US + Africa |
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| **Technology** (Lions Dev) | **$65,000** | **15.5%** | **Évolutions + début IA** |
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| - Lions Dev | $30,000 | 7.1% | Features + intégrations |
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| - SaaS Stack | $15,000 | 3.6% | Plus d'utilisateurs |
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| - Security | $5,000 | 1.2% | Compliance renforcée |
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| - IA/ML (début Phase 2) | $15,000 | 3.6% | Infrastructure IA |
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| G&A | $45,000 | 10.7% | Scale opérations |
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| **Total Opex** | **$430,000** | **102.4%** | |
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| **EBITDA** | **-$45,000** | **-10.7%** | |
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| **NET INCOME** | **-$45,000** | **-10.7%** | |
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**Analysis**:
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- Perte An 2 plus importante que prévu original (investissement Tech +$25K pour IA)
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- Investissement stratégique dans Phase 2 IA (2027 début)
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- Croissance forte Africa justifie investissement
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- Break-even prévu Q3-Q4 An 2 avec scaling
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---
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### Year 3 (2028) - Summary
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#### Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental Mature)
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| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
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|---------|------------|------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|--------|
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| **TRANSFORM Programs** | 23 | $450,000 | 22 | $180,000 | $630,000 | +91% |
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| **ADVISORY Retainers** | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 2 (avg) | $42,000 | $162,000 | +15% |
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| **ACCELERATOR Intensives** | 8 part. | $200,000 | 8 part. | $96,000 | $296,000 | +49% |
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| **PLATFORM Membership** | 90 avg | $200,000 | 60 avg | $65,000 | $265,000 | +46% |
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| **TOTAL** | | **$970,000** | | **$383,000** | **$1,353,000** | **+59%** |
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**Conservative Projection Used**: **$850,000** (63% of potential)
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- US: $550,000 (65%)
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- Africa: $300,000 (35%)
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**Répartition géographique An 3**: 65% US / 35% Africa (équilibre mature)
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#### Expenses Summary
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| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
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|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
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| COGS | $70,000 | 8.2% | Scale bi-continental |
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| **Gross Profit** | **$780,000** | **91.8%** | |
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| Payroll | $425,000 | 50.0% | +2 coaches, Ops Manager |
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| Marketing | $120,000 | 14.1% | Optimize + expansion anglophone |
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| **Technology** (Lions Dev + IA) | **$115,000** | **13.5%** | **Full IA Phase 2** |
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| - Lions Dev | $45,000 | 5.3% | IA integration + automation |
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| - SaaS Stack | $25,000 | 2.9% | Enterprise scale |
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| - Security | $10,000 | 1.2% | Compliance multi-pays |
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| - IA/ML Infrastructure | $35,000 | 4.1% | Full IA deployment |
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| G&A | $75,000 | 8.8% | Scale mature |
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| **Total Opex** | **$735,000** | **86.5%** | |
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| **EBITDA** | **$45,000** | **5.3%** | |
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| **Taxes (25%)** | -$11,250 | 1.3% | |
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| **NET INCOME** | **$33,750** | **4.0%** | |
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**Analysis**:
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- **Profitable An 3** malgré investissement IA massif ($50K)
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- Marges plus serrées que prévu initial (4% vs 9.7%) à cause de Tech investment
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- Investissement IA = pari sur croissance An 4-5 (automation + scale)
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- Modèle bi-continental mature: 65/35 US/Africa
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- **An 4 projection**: Marges remontent à 15-20% quand IA déployée (économies d'échelle)
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---
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## 10.3 Three-Year P&L Summary (Modèle Bi-Continental + Lions Dev)
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| | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| **REVENUE** | $180,000 | $420,000 | $850,000 |
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| - US | $130,000 (72%) | $270,000 (64%) | $550,000 (65%) |
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| - Africa | $50,000 (28%) | $150,000 (36%) | $300,000 (35%) |
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| COGS | $15,000 | $35,000 | $70,000 |
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| **GROSS PROFIT** | $165,000 | $385,000 | $780,000 |
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| **Gross Margin %** | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% |
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| | | | |
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| Payroll | $124,200 | $240,000 | $425,000 |
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| Marketing | $50,000 | $80,000 | $120,000 |
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| **Technology (Lions Dev)** | **$30,000** | **$65,000** | **$115,000** |
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| G&A | $28,000 | $45,000 | $75,000 |
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| **Operating Expenses** | $232,200 | $430,000 | $735,000 |
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| **EBITDA** | **-$67,200** | **-$45,000** | **$45,000** |
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| **EBITDA Margin %** | **-37.3%** | **-10.7%** | **5.3%** |
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| Taxes | $0 | $0 | $11,250 |
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| **NET INCOME** | **-$67,200** | **-$45,000** | **$33,750** |
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| **Net Margin %** | **-37.3%** | **-10.7%** | **4.0%** |
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**Notes importantes**:
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- **Modèle bi-continental** ajoute complexité mais diversifie revenus et risque
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- **Technology costs higher** An 2-3 (Phase 2 IA: +$50K investissement total)
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- **Profitability An 3 réduite** vs plan initial (4% vs 9.7%) due à investissement IA stratégique
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- **Lions Dev revenues** via GBCM: $40-50K An 1, $110-150K An 2, $225-345K An 3 (total $375-545K)
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- **Break-even** Q3-Q4 An 2, puis profitabilité croissante
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- **An 4+ projection**: Marges 15-20% quand IA deployed + scaling economies
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---
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## 10.4 Cash Flow Statement
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### Year 1 Cash Flow (Bi-Continental Launch)
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| Category | Amount | Notes |
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|----------|--------|-------|
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| **Operating Activities** | | |
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| Net Income | -$67,200 | Amélioration vs initial (-$72K) |
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| Add: Non-cash expenses | $0 | No depreciation An 1 |
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| Changes in Working Capital | $15,000 | Prepayments from clients (US + Africa) |
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| **Cash from Operations** | **-$52,200** | |
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| **Investing Activities** | | |
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| Platform development (Lions Dev) | -$20,000 | MVP custom (vs $35K initial) |
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| SaaS prepayments (annual) | -$8,000 | Discounts for annual prepay |
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| Equipment/furniture | -$3,000 | Laptop, office basics |
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| **Cash from Investing** | **-$31,000** | |
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| **Financing Activities** | | |
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| Founder capital injection | $75,000 | Initial investment |
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| Loans | $0 | Bootstrap |
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| **Cash from Financing** | **$75,000** | |
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| **NET CASH FLOW** | **-$8,200** | |
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| Beginning Cash | $0 | |
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| **Ending Cash** | **-$8,200** | |
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**Analysis**:
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- **Amélioration significative** vs plan initial: -$8K vs -$20K cash flow
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- **Lions Dev partnership** économise $15K cash An 1 (MVP moins cher)
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- **$75K capital suffisant** pour An 1 avec buffer confortable
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- Modèle bi-continental n'augmente pas cash needs An 1
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|
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### Year 2-3 Cash Flow Summary
|
||
|
||
| | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||
|---|---|---|
|
||
| Cash from Operations | -$20,000 | $70,000 |
|
||
| Cash from Investing | -$35,000 | -$50,000 |
|
||
| Cash from Financing | $0 | $0 |
|
||
| **Net Cash Flow** | **-$55,000** | **$20,000** |
|
||
| Beginning Cash | -$8,200 | -$63,200 |
|
||
| **Ending Cash** | **-$63,200** | **-$43,200** |
|
||
|
||
**Analysis Cash Flow**:
|
||
- **Year 2**: Cash flow négatif à cause investissements Tech IA ($65K total)
|
||
- **Year 3**: Cash flow positif malgré investissement massif IA ($115K)
|
||
- **Besoin capital additionnel An 2**: ~$50-60K pour couvrir investments IA
|
||
- **Options financement An 2**:
|
||
- Ligne de crédit $50K
|
||
- Pré-vente clients (advance payments)
|
||
- Revenue-based financing
|
||
- **An 3 onwards**: Cash flow positif et croissant avec IA deployed
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.5 Lions Dev Revenue Projections (Partenaire Stratégique)
|
||
|
||
### Modèle Économique Lions Dev via GBCM
|
||
|
||
**Structure**:
|
||
1. **Contrats au forfait** - GBCM paie Lions Dev pour développement plateforme
|
||
2. **Commission sur projets clients** - Lions Dev reçoit 10-15% des revenus projets tech clients GBCM
|
||
3. **Recurring maintenance** - Contrats mensuels maintenance après go-live
|
||
|
||
### Revenus Lions Dev projetés
|
||
|
||
| Source | An 1 (2026) | An 2 (2027) | An 3 (2028) | Total 3 ans |
|
||
|--------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
|
||
| **GBCM Direct** (plateforme) | $20,000 | $30,000 | $45,000 | $95,000 |
|
||
| **Projets Clients** (3-4 An 1) | $20-30K | $80-120K | $180-300K | $280-450K |
|
||
| - Commission moyenne | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
|
||
| **Maintenance** (recurring) | $0 | $5,000 | $15,000 | $20,000 |
|
||
| **TOTAL Lions Dev** | **$40-50K** | **$115-155K** | **$240-360K** | **$395-565K** |
|
||
|
||
**Breakdown projets clients**:
|
||
- **An 1**: 3-4 projets @ $7-10K moyenne = $20-30K
|
||
- **An 2**: 10-12 projets @ $8-12K moyenne = $80-120K
|
||
- **An 3**: 20-25 projets @ $9-15K moyenne = $180-300K
|
||
|
||
### Impact sur les deux entreprises
|
||
|
||
| Métrique | GBCM | Lions Dev |
|
||
|----------|------|-----------|
|
||
| **Revenus 3 ans** | $1,450K | $395-565K |
|
||
| **Tech costs GBCM** | -$210K (vs $270K initial) | +$210K revenues tech |
|
||
| **Synergies** | Économie $60K, tech expert | Pipeline projets garanti |
|
||
| **Risque** | Dépendance 1 vendor | Dépendance 1 gros client |
|
||
| **Mitigation** | SLA stricts, backup plan | Diversifier clients hors GBCM |
|
||
|
||
**Win-Win**:
|
||
- GBCM: Tech de qualité, coûts optimisés, partenaire local Afrique (Abidjan)
|
||
- Lions Dev: $400-550K revenues garantis 3 ans, showcase clients B2B, expansion US
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.6 Balance Sheet (Simplified)
|
||
|
||
### Year 1
|
||
|
||
| ASSETS | Amount |
|
||
|--------|--------|
|
||
| Cash | -$20,000 |
|
||
| Accounts Receivable | $25,000 |
|
||
| Prepaid Expenses | $5,000 |
|
||
| **Total Current Assets** | $10,000 |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| Platform (capitalized) | $35,000 |
|
||
| Equipment | $3,000 |
|
||
| Less: Depreciation | $0 |
|
||
| **Total Fixed Assets** | $38,000 |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| **TOTAL ASSETS** | $48,000 |
|
||
|
||
| LIABILITIES & EQUITY | Amount |
|
||
|---------------------|--------|
|
||
| Accounts Payable | $15,000 |
|
||
| Accrued Expenses | $10,000 |
|
||
| **Total Current Liabilities** | $25,000 |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| Long-term Debt | $0 |
|
||
| **Total Liabilities** | $25,000 |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| Owner's Equity | $75,000 |
|
||
| Retained Earnings | -$52,000 |
|
||
| **Total Equity** | $23,000 |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| **TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY** | $48,000 |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.6 Key Financial Metrics
|
||
|
||
### Unit Economics (Per Client)
|
||
|
||
#### TRANSFORM Programs (Average)
|
||
|
||
| Metric | Growth | Scale | Transform |
|
||
|--------|--------|-------|-----------|
|
||
| Price | $8,997 | $23,997 | $59,997 |
|
||
| COGS | $720 | $1,920 | $4,800 |
|
||
| **Gross Profit** | $8,277 | $22,077 | $55,197 |
|
||
| **Gross Margin** | 92% | 92% | 92% |
|
||
| | | | |
|
||
| CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) | $1,500 | $2,500 | $5,000 |
|
||
| Onboarding Cost | $500 | $1,000 | $2,000 |
|
||
| **Total Acquisition** | $2,000 | $3,500 | $7,000 |
|
||
| | | | |
|
||
| **Contribution Margin** | $6,277 | $18,577 | $48,197 |
|
||
| **LTV (3 year, 60% retention)** | $16,200 | $43,200 | $108,000 |
|
||
| **LTV:CAC Ratio** | 8:1 | 12:1 | 15:1 |
|
||
|
||
**Analysis**: Excellent unit economics across all tiers. Healthy LTV:CAC (target >3:1, achieved 8-15:1).
|
||
|
||
#### PLATFORM Membership
|
||
|
||
| Metric | Amount |
|
||
|--------|--------|
|
||
| Annual Price | $2,997 |
|
||
| COGS (hosting, support) | $150 |
|
||
| **Gross Profit** | $2,847 |
|
||
| **Gross Margin** | 95% |
|
||
| | |
|
||
| CAC | $100 |
|
||
| **Contribution Margin Yr 1** | $2,747 |
|
||
| **LTV (3 years, 25% churn)** | $6,700 |
|
||
| **LTV:CAC Ratio** | 67:1 |
|
||
|
||
**Analysis**: Outstanding economics if churn controlled. Pure scale play.
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
### Profitability Metrics
|
||
|
||
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|
||
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||
| **Gross Margin** | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% | >85% ✅ |
|
||
| **EBITDA Margin** | -40.1% | -4.8% | 12.9% | >15% An 3 ❌ |
|
||
| **Net Margin** | -40.1% | -4.8% | 9.7% | >10% An 3 ❌ |
|
||
| **ROE** | N/A | N/A | 359% | >30% ✅ |
|
||
|
||
**Note**: Margins intentionally low An 1-2 (investment phase). An 3 close to target, An 4 expect >20%.
|
||
|
||
### Efficiency Metrics
|
||
|
||
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
||
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||
| **Revenue per Employee** | $60K | $70K | $106K |
|
||
| **Payroll as % Revenue** | 69% | 57% | 50% |
|
||
| **CAC Payback Period** | 2 months | 1.5 months | 1 month |
|
||
| **Cash Conversion Cycle** | 30 days | 20 days | 15 days |
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.7 Scenario Analysis (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)
|
||
|
||
### Conservative (Baseline in Projections)
|
||
|
||
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|
||
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
|
||
| 1 | $180,000 | $130K (72%) | $50K (28%) | -$67,200 | -$67,200 |
|
||
| 2 | $420,000 | $270K (64%) | $150K (36%) | -$45,000 | -$45,000 |
|
||
| 3 | $850,000 | $550K (65%) | $300K (35%) | $45,000 | $33,750 |
|
||
|
||
**Assumptions**:
|
||
- 50% client acquisition targets
|
||
- Higher churn (30% An 1, 25% An 2)
|
||
- Slower ramp Africa (soft launch An 1)
|
||
- Full IA investment An 2-3 ($50K)
|
||
|
||
### Realistic (50% Probability)
|
||
|
||
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|
||
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
|
||
| 1 | $280,000 | $200K (71%) | $80K (29%) | -$30,000 | -$30,000 |
|
||
| 2 | $650,000 | $420K (65%) | $230K (35%) | $80,000 | $60,000 |
|
||
| 3 | $1,200,000 | $780K (65%) | $420K (35%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |
|
||
|
||
**Assumptions**:
|
||
- 75% client acquisition targets
|
||
- Industry-standard churn (25% An 1, 20% An 2)
|
||
- Forte croissance Africa An 2-3
|
||
- IA déployée début An 3, impacts positifs
|
||
|
||
### Optimistic (20% Probability)
|
||
|
||
| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|
||
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
|
||
| 1 | $375,000 | $265K (71%) | $110K (29%) | $25,000 | $18,750 |
|
||
| 2 | $850,000 | $545K (64%) | $305K (36%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |
|
||
| 3 | $1,600,000 | $1,040K (65%) | $560K (35%) | $400,000 | $300,000 |
|
||
|
||
**Assumptions**:
|
||
- Full client targets achieved (100% An 1)
|
||
- Best-in-class retention/referrals (<20% churn)
|
||
- Africa explosive growth (3x vs conservative)
|
||
- IA déployée mi-An 2, ROI immédiat
|
||
- Platform membership viral (200+ members An 3)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.8 Break-Even Analysis
|
||
|
||
### Break-Even Calculation (Monthly)
|
||
|
||
**Fixed Costs** (monthly average An 1):
|
||
- Payroll: $10,350
|
||
- Marketing: $4,167
|
||
- Technology: $2,917
|
||
- G&A: $2,333
|
||
- **Total Fixed**: $19,767/month
|
||
|
||
**Variable Costs**: ~8% of revenue (COGS)
|
||
|
||
**Contribution Margin**: 92% (after variable costs)
|
||
|
||
**Break-Even Revenue** = Fixed Costs ÷ Contribution Margin
|
||
= $19,767 ÷ 0.92
|
||
= **$21,486/month**
|
||
|
||
**Break-Even in Clients**:
|
||
- 2-3 TRANSFORM clients (depending on tier)
|
||
- OR 1 ADVISORY retainer
|
||
- OR 1 Accelerator cohort/quarter
|
||
- OR 70-80 Platform members
|
||
|
||
**Timeline to Break-Even**: Month 14-16 (Q2 An 2) in conservative scenario
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.9 Funding Requirements & Use of Funds
|
||
|
||
### Capital Required (Modèle Bi-Continental)
|
||
|
||
**Year 1 Initial**: $75,000
|
||
**Year 2 Additional**: $50-60,000 (pour investissements IA Phase 2)
|
||
**Total 3 ans**: $125-135,000
|
||
|
||
#### Use of Funds Breakdown Year 1
|
||
|
||
| Category | Amount | % | Justification |
|
||
|----------|--------|---|---------------|
|
||
| **Platform Development** (Lions Dev) | $20,000 | 27% | MVP custom software (6-mois, via Lions Dev partnership) |
|
||
| **Marketing & Launch** (Bi-Continental) | $25,000 | 33% | Pre-launch + 6 mois ads US + Africa |
|
||
| **Technology Setup** (SaaS + Tools) | $10,000 | 13% | HubSpot, Zoom, hosting, security (annual prepay) |
|
||
| **Legal & Formation** (Multi-pays) | $10,000 | 13% | LLC US, compliance Africa, contracts |
|
||
| **Working Capital** | $10,000 | 13% | Buffer 2-3 mois runway bi-continental |
|
||
| **TOTAL** | **$75,000** | **100%** | |
|
||
|
||
**Économies vs plan initial**: Lions Dev partnership réduit Platform Dev de $35K → $20K (-$15K)
|
||
|
||
#### Use of Funds Year 2 (Additionnel)
|
||
|
||
| Category | Amount | Justification |
|
||
|----------|--------|---------------|
|
||
| **IA/ML Infrastructure** (Phase 2 début) | $15,000 | OpenAI API, cloud compute, data pipeline |
|
||
| **Lions Dev - Features IA** | $20,000 | Développement features IA integration |
|
||
| **Marketing Scale** (Africa expansion) | $15,000 | Scale Africa francophone + prep anglophone |
|
||
| **Working Capital** | $10,000 | Buffer croissance bi-continentale |
|
||
| **TOTAL** | **$60,000** | |
|
||
|
||
### Funding Sources (Recommended)
|
||
|
||
**AN 1 - Option A: Bootstrap** (Preferred)
|
||
- Founder capital: $50,000 (personal investment)
|
||
- Early client prepayments: $25,000 (2-3 clients US + 1-2 Africa pre-sold)
|
||
- **Pros**: Full ownership, discipline, validation marché
|
||
- **Cons**: Limited runway, stress bi-continental
|
||
|
||
**AN 1 - Option B: Friends & Family**
|
||
- Founder: $50,000
|
||
- F&F: $25,000 (SAFE note, 15% discount, $1M cap)
|
||
- **Pros**: Faster launch bi-continental, buffer Africa
|
||
- **Cons**: Outside capital, expectations
|
||
|
||
**AN 2 - Financing IA Phase 2** ($50-60K needed)
|
||
- **Option 1**: Revenue-based financing (8-12% of MRR jusqu'à $75K)
|
||
- **Option 2**: Ligne de crédit SBA ($50K @ 8%)
|
||
- **Option 3**: Strategic partner (Lions Dev equity stake 5-10% pour $50K)
|
||
- **Option 4**: Advance payments clients (pré-vente 5-10 clients An 2)
|
||
|
||
**Recommendation**:
|
||
- **An 1**: Option A (Bootstrap) - validation modèle bi-continental
|
||
- **An 2**: Option 1 ou 4 (revenue-based ou advance payments) - évite dilution, aligné croissance
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.10 Return on Investment (ROI)
|
||
|
||
### Founder ROI (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)
|
||
|
||
**Investment**:
|
||
- An 1: $75,000 (capital initial)
|
||
- An 2: $60,000 (financement IA, assumé dette/RBF)
|
||
- **Total**: $135,000 (sur 3 ans)
|
||
|
||
**Returns** (3-year horizon) - **Modèle révisé avec IA investment**:
|
||
|
||
| Scenario | Cumulative Profit | Equity Value (3x EBITDA) | Total Return | ROI | IRR |
|
||
|----------|-------------------|--------------------------|--------------|-----|-----|
|
||
| **Conservative** | **-$79K** | **$135K** (3 × $45K) | **$56K** | **41%** | **12%** |
|
||
| **Realistic** | $50K | $450K (3 × $150K) | $500K | 370% | 83% |
|
||
| **Optimistic** | $200K | $900K (3 × $300K) | $1,100K | 815% | 142% |
|
||
|
||
**Payback Period**:
|
||
- Conservative: 42+ months (An 4)
|
||
- Realistic: 24 months (fin An 2)
|
||
- Optimistic: 15 months (mid An 2)
|
||
|
||
**Analysis nouvelle stratégie**:
|
||
- **Conservative scenario moins attractif** court terme (41% ROI vs 427% initial)
|
||
- **MAIS**: Investissement IA = **pari sur An 4-5** (automation, scale, margins 15-20%)
|
||
- **Realistic/Optimistic** scenarios restent très attractifs (370-815% ROI)
|
||
- **Trade-off**: Court terme moins profitable, mais **long terme exponential**
|
||
- **An 4 projection** (non montré): $1.5M revenue, 18% EBITDA = $270K, ROI devient >500%
|
||
|
||
**Comparaison modèles**:
|
||
|
||
| Métrique | Plan Initial (sans IA) | Nouveau Plan (IA Phase 2) | Différence |
|
||
|----------|-------------------------|---------------------------|------------|
|
||
| Investment total | $75K | $135K | +$60K |
|
||
| An 3 EBITDA (conservative) | $110K | $45K | -$65K |
|
||
| An 3 Net Income | $82.5K | $33.7K | -$48.8K |
|
||
| ROI 3 ans | 427% | 41% | -386% |
|
||
| **An 5 EBITDA (projected)** | **$250K** | **$450K** | **+$200K** |
|
||
| **An 5 ROI (projected)** | **700%** | **1,200%** | **+500%** |
|
||
|
||
**Conclusion ROI**:
|
||
- **Si objectif = profitabilité rapide An 3**: Plan initial meilleur
|
||
- **Si objectif = scale massif An 4-5 avec IA**: Nouveau plan meilleur
|
||
- **Nouveau plan = pari sur technologie** pour unlock croissance exponentielle
|
||
- **Bi-continental + IA** = moat plus fort, mais capital-intensive
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.11 Sensitivity Analysis
|
||
|
||
### Key Variables Impact on Year 3 EBITDA
|
||
|
||
| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
|
||
|----------|------|------|------|------|------|
|
||
| **Clients Acquired** | -$50K | $30K | $110K | $190K | $270K |
|
||
| **Avg Price** | $10K | $60K | $110K | $160K | $210K |
|
||
| **Retention Rate** | $45K | $77K | $110K | $142K | $175K |
|
||
| **CAC** | $135K | $122K | $110K | $97K | $85K |
|
||
| **Payroll** | $225K | $167K | $110K | $52K | -$5K |
|
||
|
||
**Most Sensitive to**:
|
||
1. Client Acquisition (#1 priority - marketing, sales)
|
||
2. Pricing (justify value, upsell higher tiers)
|
||
3. Payroll efficiency (hire smart, productivity)
|
||
|
||
**Least Sensitive to**:
|
||
- CAC (within reasonable range $1K-$4K, manageable)
|
||
- Retention (strong even at -20%, but optimize for upside)
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
## 10.12 Summary & Financial Health Indicators
|
||
|
||
### Financial Strength (Year 3) - Modèle Bi-Continental + IA
|
||
|
||
| Indicator | Value (Nouveau) | Value (Initial) | Benchmark | Status |
|
||
|-----------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------|--------|
|
||
| **Liquidity** | | | | |
|
||
| Cash Balance | -$43K (négatif) | $120K | >3 months opex | ⚠️ Attention |
|
||
| Current Ratio | 1.8 | 3.5 | >1.5 | ✅ Acceptable |
|
||
| | | | | |
|
||
| **Profitability** | | | | |
|
||
| Gross Margin | 91.8% | 91.8% | >80% | ✅ Excellent |
|
||
| EBITDA Margin | 5.3% | 12.9% | >10% | ⚠️ Below target |
|
||
| Net Margin | 4.0% | 9.7% | >8% | ⚠️ Below target |
|
||
| | | | | |
|
||
| **Efficiency** | | | | |
|
||
| Revenue per Employee | $106K | $106K | >$100K | ✅ Strong |
|
||
| LTV:CAC (blended US+Africa) | 8-12:1 | 10-15:1 | >3:1 | ✅ Outstanding |
|
||
| CAC Payback | 1.5 months | 1 month | <6 months | ✅ Excellent |
|
||
| | | | | |
|
||
| **Growth** | | | | |
|
||
| YoY Revenue Growth | 102% (Y2→Y3) | 102% | >30% | ✅ Exceptional |
|
||
| Customer Growth (global) | 89% | 89% | >25% | ✅ Strong |
|
||
| Geographic Diversification | 65/35 US/Africa | 100% US | Diverse | ✅ Strong |
|
||
|
||
**Overall Financial Health**: **MODERATE** ⚠️
|
||
|
||
**Trade-offs du nouveau modèle**:
|
||
|
||
| Aspect | ➕ Positif | ➖ Négatif |
|
||
|--------|-----------|-----------|
|
||
| **Revenus** | Diversification géographique, TAM plus large | Prix Africa -50%, complexity |
|
||
| **Profitabilité** | Gross margins excellentes (91.8%) | EBITDA/Net margins serrés (investment IA) |
|
||
| **Cash Flow** | Lions Dev partnership économise cash | Besoin $60K additionnel An 2 |
|
||
| **Risque** | Diversifié sur 2 continents | Dépendance Lions Dev, complexity Africa |
|
||
| **Croissance** | IA unlock scale An 4-5, 2 marchés | Plus lent break-even (Q3-Q4 An 2 vs Q2) |
|
||
| **Stratégique** | Moat technologique fort, first-mover Africa | Capital-intensive, execution risk |
|
||
|
||
### Recommandations Stratégiques
|
||
|
||
**Court Terme (An 1-2)**:
|
||
1. ✅ **Valider product-market fit** US avant scale Africa
|
||
2. ✅ **Bootstrap An 1** - minimiser dilution
|
||
3. ⚠️ **Monitor cash** - prévoir financing An 2 ($50-60K)
|
||
4. ✅ **Lions Dev SLAs** - mitigate vendor dependency
|
||
|
||
**Moyen Terme (An 2-3)**:
|
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5. ⚠️ **IA ROI critical** - si pas de traction, pivot back to manual
|
||
6. ✅ **Scale Africa** - leverage Lions Dev Abidjan presence
|
||
7. ✅ **Optimize margins** - target 10%+ EBITDA An 3
|
||
8. ⚠️ **Plan An 4 financing** - si scale IA successful, raise $200-500K
|
||
|
||
**Alternative: Plan Conservateur sans IA An 2**:
|
||
- Si cash flow An 2 serré, **reporter IA à An 3-4**
|
||
- Focus sur profitabilité An 2 (bootstrap)
|
||
- IA Phase 2 conditionné à profitabilité établie
|
||
|
||
---
|
||
|
||
**Conclusion Financière**:
|
||
|
||
Le **modèle bi-continental + IA Phase 2** est:
|
||
- ✅ **Viable** si execution excellente
|
||
- ⚠️ **Capital-intensive** - besoin $135K sur 3 ans (vs $75K initial)
|
||
- ✅ **High-growth potential** - unlock exponential via IA An 4-5
|
||
- ⚠️ **Higher risk** - complexity géographique + tech
|
||
- ✅ **Strategic moat** - first-mover Africa + tech différentiation
|
||
|
||
**Pour qui?**: Founder ambitieux, tech-savvy, comfortable avec risk, vision long-terme (5+ ans)
|
||
|
||
**Alternative safe**: Plan initial US-only, IA Phase 3 - ROI 427% An 3, profitable An 3
|
||
|
||
---
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**NEXT**: [11-funding-strategy.md](./11-funding-strategy.md) - Stratégie de financement détaillée
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