gbcm-docs/business-plan-2025/12-risk-mitigation.md

12. RISK ANALYSIS & MITIGATION

Document: Business Plan GBCM LLC 2025 Section: 12 - Risk Analysis & Mitigation Version: 2.0 Date: October 2025 Pages: 14

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📋 TABLE DES MATIÈRES

• Vue d'Ensemble
• Market & Competitive Risks
• Operational Risks
• Financial Risks
• Technology Risks
• People & Organization Risks
• Legal & Compliance Risks
• External & Macro Risks
• Risk Management Framework

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🎯 VUE D'ENSEMBLE

Risk Philosophy: Identify, Assess, Mitigate, Monitor

GBCM LLC adopte une approche proactive de gestion des risques - anticiper les problèmes avant qu'ils ne surviennent.

Risk Management Process:

1. Identify: List all potential risks (brainstorm, industry research)
2. Assess: Rate each risk (Probability × Impact = Risk Score)
3. Mitigate: Create action plans to reduce probability or impact
4. Monitor: Track indicators, review quarterly

Risk Matrix Framework

Probability Scale (1-5):

• 1 = Rare (<10% chance)
• 2 = Unlikely (10-30%)
• 3 = Possible (30-50%)
• 4 = Likely (50-75%)
• 5 = Almost Certain (>75%)

Impact Scale (1-5):

• 1 = Negligible (minor inconvenience)
• 2 = Minor (affects 1-2 clients or <$5K loss)
• 3 = Moderate (affects 5-10 clients or $5K-25K loss)
• 4 = Major (affects 20+ clients or $25K-100K loss)
• 5 = Critical (business failure, >$100K loss)

Risk Score = Probability × Impact (1-25)

• 1-6 = Low risk (monitor, no immediate action)
• 7-12 = Medium risk (mitigate within 6 months)
• 13-19 = High risk (mitigate within 3 months)
• 20-25 = Critical risk (mitigate immediately)

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🏪 MARKET & COMPETITIVE RISKS

RISK 1: Market Saturation / Too Many Coaches

Description: 145,000+ business coaches in US, difficult to differentiate

Probability: 4 (Likely) - Market IS crowded Impact: 4 (Major) - Could struggle to acquire clients, price pressure Risk Score: 16 (HIGH)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Niche Specialization (Reduce)

   • Focus on 3 specific personas (Scale-Up CEOs, Bootstrappers, First-Time CEOs)
   • vs generic "business coach for everyone"
   • Result: Compete with 1,000 specialists, not 145,000 generalists

2. Tech Differentiation (Reduce)

   • AI Success Coach™ (first-mover in SMB space, 12-18 month lead)
   • Proprietary platform (competitors use Zoom + Google Docs)
   • Result: Unique value prop ("Only AI-powered coaching for SMBs")

3. Proven Methodology (Reduce)

   • Trademarked frameworks (Scale Framework™, DTC™, SLS™)
   • Data-backed results ("Clients average 34% revenue growth")
   • Result: Credibility > generic coaches

4. Premium Positioning (Accept)

   • Price at top 25% (not bottom 50% fighting on price)
   • Attract clients who value quality over cost
   • Result: Smaller TAM, but higher margins + better clients

Monitoring Indicators:

• CAC trend (if rising >$5K, differentiation weakening)
• Close rate (if dropping <50%, messaging unclear)
• Client source (if <30% referrals by Year 2, not differentiated enough)

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RISK 2: Well-Funded Competitor Enters SMB Market

Description: BetterUp ($1.73B valuation) or CoachHub ($1B) launch SMB offering

Probability: 3 (Possible) - They're focused on enterprise now, but could pivot Impact: 4 (Major) - Deep pockets = outspend us on marketing, steal clients Risk Score: 12 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. First-Mover Advantage (Reduce)

   • Launch 2026 (before they enter)
   • Capture 100+ clients by time they launch (Year 2-3)
   • Build brand recognition in SMB space

2. Relationship Moat (Reduce)

   • High-touch service (know clients personally, not faceless platform)
   • Community (clients refer peers, sticky network effects)
   • Result: Hard to poach our clients even with better tech

3. Pivot to B2B2B (Accept if happens)

   • If they enter market, we white-label to them
   • "BetterUp for SMBs, powered by GBCM"
   • Result: Partner instead of compete

Monitoring Indicators:

• Competitor product launches (track BetterUp, CoachHub press releases)
• Pricing changes (if they launch SMB tier at $5K/year, undercutting us)
• Client churn reasons (if losing clients to bigger platforms)

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RISK 3: Economic Recession (Coaching Seen as "Nice-to-Have")

Description: 2026-2027 recession, SMBs cut coaching budgets first

Probability: 3 (Possible) - Economists predicting 30-40% recession risk 2026-2027 Impact: 5 (Critical) - Revenue could drop 40-60%, cash flow crisis Risk Score: 15 (HIGH)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Diversify Client Base (Reduce)

   • Target recession-resistant industries: Healthcare, SaaS, Essential Services
   • Avoid: Retail, hospitality, luxury goods
   • Result: 70% of clients in stable industries

2. Lock-In Contracts (Reduce)

   • 12-month prepay (with 5% discount incentive)
   • 60% of clients prepay = 60% of Year 2 revenue secured upfront
   • Result: Recession hits, but revenue already banked

3. Flexible Pricing (Reduce)

   • Offer "pause" option (3-month pause, resume when ready)
   • Downgrade options (ADVISORY → TRANSFORM Scale vs cancel)
   • Result: Retain 50% of clients who would otherwise churn

4. Cash Reserves (Reduce Impact)

   • Maintain 6-12 months expenses in cash by end of Year 2
   • $122K (end of Y2) = 3.6 months → Goal: $200K = 6 months
   • Result: Can weather 6-month revenue dip without panic

5. Shift to Essentials (Pivot)

   • Reposition: "Cost-cutting consultant" not "growth coach"
   • "I help you survive recession" (operational efficiency, cash management)
   • Result: Increase demand during downturn

Monitoring Indicators:

• GDP growth (if <1%, recession likely)
• Client renewal rate (if drops below 70%, economic stress)
• Discovery call volume (if drops 50%+, demand weakening)

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⚙️ OPERATIONAL RISKS

RISK 4: Founder Burnout / Inability to Scale

Description: Founder works 60-70 hours/week, gets exhausted, quality suffers

Probability: 4 (Likely) - Common for solo entrepreneurs Impact: 4 (Major) - Client satisfaction drops, reputation damaged Risk Score: 16 (HIGH)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Time Boundaries (Reduce)

   • Hard stop: 50 hours/week max (track in Toggl)
   • No work weekends (except emergencies)
   • 4 weeks vacation/year (actually take it)

2. Delegate Early (Reduce)

   • Hire VA Month 1 (not Month 6 when already burned out)
   • Hire Senior Coach Q3 Y2 (before at capacity, not after)
   • Rule: If task <$100/hour value, delegate

3. Automate Ruthlessly (Reduce)

   • AI Coach handles 60% of client questions (saves 10h/week)
   • Email sequences automated (onboarding, nurture, renewals)
   • Scheduling: Calendly (no back-and-forth emails)

4. Peer Support (Reduce)

   • Join CEO peer group (Vistage, EO) - monthly accountability
   • Executive coach for founder ($10K/year)
   • Therapist (mental health is health)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Hours worked/week (if >55 for 3+ weeks, intervene)
• Energy level (1-10 self-rating, if <6 for 2+ weeks, red flag)
• Session quality (if client ratings drop <4.3, sign of burnout)

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RISK 5: Key Client Churn (Lose 30%+ Revenue Suddenly)

Description: 3 large ADVISORY clients ($120K each = $360K) churn same quarter

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - But possible if all hired internal COO Impact: 5 (Critical) - Lose 40%+ of revenue, cash crisis Risk Score: 10 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Revenue Diversification (Reduce)

   • No single client >15% of revenue (cap ADVISORY at 10 clients max)
   • Balance mix: 10 ADVISORY, 40 TRANSFORM, 50 PLATFORM
   • Result: Losing 1 client = max 2.5% revenue hit (survivable)

2. Early Warning System (Reduce)

   • Track engagement weekly (if client <30 score, proactive outreach)
   • Quarterly check-ins (ask: "What could we do better?")
   • NPS surveys (Detractors get immediate founder call)

3. Value Reinforcement (Reduce)

   • Monthly value reports ("This month we helped you: X, Y, Z")
   • ROI tracking (tie our work to their revenue/profit growth)
   • Result: Client sees clear value = less likely to cancel

4. Contractual Protection (Reduce Impact)

   • 30-day termination notice (gives time to replace revenue)
   • Prepayment (12-month contracts = even if churn, already paid)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Engagement scores (if 3+ clients drop below 40, investigate)
• NPS trend (if drops from 60 → 45, systemic issue)
• Renewal rate (if drops below 75%, business model at risk)

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RISK 6: Service Delivery Quality Decline (As We Scale)

Description: Grow from 30 → 100 clients, workshops become impersonal, coaching rushed

Probability: 3 (Possible) - Common scaling challenge Impact: 4 (Major) - NPS drops, referrals dry up, revenue stalls Risk Score: 12 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Quality Metrics (Monitor)

   • Track: Session ratings, NPS, client outcomes (revenue growth)
   • Target: Maintain 4.5+ rating even at 100 clients
   • Alert: If any metric drops 10%+, pause growth until fixed

2. Team Training (Reduce)

   • Senior Coach shadowing (6 weeks onboarding, not 2 weeks)
   • Bi-weekly coaching supervision (founder coaches the coach)
   • Certification: Must hit 4.5+ rating for 3 months before solo

3. Process Standardization (Reduce)

   • Playbooks: Detailed SOPs for every process (onboarding, workshops, QBRs)
   • Templates: Pre-built coaching exercises, discussion guides
   • Result: Consistency across all coaches (client experience uniform)

4. Client Segmentation (Accept)

   • Founder handles top 10 ADVISORY clients (highest touch)
   • Senior Coach handles TRANSFORM Scale (medium touch)
   • AI + community handles PLATFORM (low touch, scalable)
   • Result: Match service level to willingness to pay

Monitoring Indicators:

• Session rating trend (if drops from 4.6 → 4.3, quality slipping)
• Client complaints (if >5% of clients complain, systemic issue)
• Team utilization (if coaches at >90% capacity, rushing sessions)

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💸 FINANCIAL RISKS

RISK 7: Cash Flow Crisis (Run Out of Money Year 1)

Description: Revenue slower than projected, burn through $75K by Month 9

Probability: 3 (Possible) - Startups often miss revenue targets Impact: 5 (Critical) - Can't pay bills, business folds Risk Score: 15 (HIGH)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Conservative Projections (Reduce)

   • Budget assumes 30 clients, but have backup plan for 20
   • If only hit 20 clients Year 1 ($120K revenue):
     • Cut expenses: Delay hires, reduce ad spend ($180K → $140K)
     • Founder injects $20K emergency fund (if needed)
     • Result: Survive, grow slower but stay alive

2. Milestone-Based Spending (Reduce)

   • Don't hire Senior Coach until hit 40 clients (not "Q3 2027")
   • Don't double ad spend until CAC <$3K proven
   • Result: Expenses scale with revenue (not ahead of it)

3. Flexible Cost Structure (Reduce)

   • 80% variable costs (marketing, contractors) vs 20% fixed (founder salary)
   • Can cut $15K/month expenses in 30 days if emergency
   • Result: Adapt quickly to revenue shortfalls

4. Early Warning Dashboard (Monitor)

   • Weekly cash flow review (every Monday morning)
   • 13-week rolling cash forecast (predict cash position 3 months out)
   • Alert: If cash <$20K, trigger emergency plan

Emergency Plan (If Cash <$20K):

1. Pause all non-essential spending (ads, VA hours, subscriptions)
2. Founder takes no salary for 2 months (save $25K)
3. Offer prepay discounts (get cash upfront from existing clients)
4. Inject $25K personal loan (last resort)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Cash balance (if <$30K, yellow alert; <$15K, red alert)
• Burn rate (if >$25K/month, unsustainable)
• Collections (if >10% invoices unpaid 30+ days, tighten credit)

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RISK 8: Client Payment Defaults (Bad Debt)

Description: 5-10% of clients don't pay invoices, write off $15K-$50K/year

Probability: 3 (Possible) - SMBs have cash flow issues too Impact: 3 (Moderate) - Lose $15K-$50K revenue Risk Score: 9 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Prepayment Model (Reduce)

   • Require 50% upfront, 50% at Month 6 (not monthly invoicing)
   • Result: Only risk losing Month 7-12 payments (max 50% exposure)

2. Auto-Billing (Reduce)

   • Stripe autopay (charge credit card automatically)
   • 90% of clients on autopay = 90% collection rate
   • Result: No "forgot to pay" excuses

3. Credit Checks (Reduce)

   • For ADVISORY clients ($90K+), check business credit (Dun & Bradstreet)
   • Red flags: Late payments, bankruptcies → Require 100% prepay OR decline

4. Collections Process (Reduce Impact)

   • Day 1 overdue: Automated email reminder
   • Day 7: Personal email from Ops Manager
   • Day 14: Founder calls client (understand issue, work out payment plan)
   • Day 30: Suspend service (no access to platform, coaching)
   • Day 60: Collections agency (last resort)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): Average days to collect payment (target <15 days)
• Bad debt %: Total unpaid / Total revenue (target <2%)

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RISK 9: Underpricing (Can't Achieve Profitability)

Description: Prices too low ($8,997 TRANSFORM Growth), can't cover costs at scale

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - Financial model shows 92% gross margin Impact: 4 (Major) - Never profitable, can't scale without external funding Risk Score: 8 (LOW-MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Annual Price Increases (Reduce)

   • Increase prices 5-10% every January (vs competitors' 3-5%)
   • Grandfather existing clients (they keep current price for loyalty)
   • New clients pay new price
   • Result: Year 3 price = $10,799 (up from $8,997, +20%)

2. Value-Based Pricing (Reduce)

   • Track client outcomes (revenue growth, profit increase)
   • If clients average 30% revenue growth ($1M → $1.3M = $300K)...
   • ...then $12K coaching fee = 4% of value created (incredible ROI)
   • Result: Can justify premium pricing

3. Upsell to Higher Tiers (Increase Revenue)

   • Convert 30% of TRANSFORM Growth → Scale (2.7x price increase)
   • Convert 15% of TRANSFORM Scale → ADVISORY (4-8x price increase)
   • Result: Same # of clients, 40% more revenue

Monitoring Indicators:

• Gross margin (if drops below 85%, prices too low or costs too high)
• Client price sensitivity (if >20% object to price, may be too high)
• Competitor pricing (if they raise prices, follow suit)

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💻 TECHNOLOGY RISKS

RISK 10: Platform Outage / Technical Failure

Description: AWS server crash, GBCM Hub down for 8+ hours, clients can't access

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - AWS 99.99% uptime SLA Impact: 3 (Moderate) - Client frustration, reputation hit, refund requests Risk Score: 6 (LOW)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Redundancy (Reduce)

   • Multi-region deployment (us-east-1 primary, us-west-2 backup)
   • Auto-failover (if East Coast down, traffic routes to West Coast <5 min)
   • Result: Single data center failure doesn't bring down platform

2. Monitoring & Alerts (Detect Fast)

   • Uptime monitoring (Pingdom checks site every 60 seconds)
   • Alert: If down >2 min, SMS + email to founder + DevOps
   • Result: Detect issues in minutes, not hours

3. Incident Response Plan (Reduce Impact)

   • Playbook: Step-by-step recovery procedures
   • Communication template: "We're aware, working on fix, ETA X hours"
   • Post-mortem: What happened, why, how we'll prevent recurrence

4. SLA with Clients (Manage Expectations)

   • Promise: 99.5% uptime (43.8 hours downtime/year allowable)
   • Refund policy: If down >8 hours in a month, 10% monthly fee credit
   • Result: Clients know what to expect, refund policy fair

Monitoring Indicators:

• Uptime % (if drops below 99.5%, investigate root cause)
• Mean Time to Resolve (MTTR): How fast we fix issues (target <2 hours)
• Client complaints (if >5 complaints about platform, UX issue)

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RISK 11: AI Coach Gives Bad Advice (Liability)

Description: AI recommends illegal strategy or terrible decision, client loses $50K+

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - GPT-4 is good, but not perfect Impact: 5 (Critical) - Lawsuit, reputation destroyed Risk Score: 10 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Disclaimers (Reduce Liability)

   • Every AI response includes: "This is AI-generated advice. Verify with your coach or attorney before implementing."
   • Terms of Service: "GBCM not liable for AI Coach recommendations"
   • Result: Legal protection (but not 100% bulletproof)

2. Human Oversight (Reduce Probability)

   • Review 10% of AI conversations weekly (random sample)
   • Retrain model monthly (fix errors, improve accuracy)
   • Escalation: If AI confidence <70%, route to human coach

3. Content Filtering (Reduce)

   • Blacklist topics: Legal advice, medical, financial regulations
   • If client asks "Can I deduct X on taxes?", AI says "Ask your CPA"
   • Result: AI stays in lane (strategy, operations, leadership - not legal/financial)

4. Insurance (Transfer Risk)

   • Professional Liability (E&O) insurance: $1M coverage ($1,200/year)
   • Covers: Negligent advice, errors, omissions
   • Result: If sued, insurance pays legal fees + settlement

Monitoring Indicators:

• AI accuracy (human coaches rate 10% of responses, track % correct)
• Client complaints (if any "AI gave bad advice" feedback, investigate immediately)
• Escalation rate (if >20% of queries escalated to human, AI not ready)

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RISK 12: Data Breach / Cyber Attack

Description: Hacker steals client data (emails, business plans, financial info)

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - Strong security, but no system is 100% safe Impact: 5 (Critical) - GDPR fines ($50K+), lawsuits, reputation destroyed Risk Score: 10 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Security Best Practices (Reduce)

   • Encryption: TLS 1.3 (in transit), AES-256 (at rest)
   • Access control: MFA required, role-based permissions
   • Penetration testing: Annual audit by security firm ($5K/year)

2. Data Minimization (Reduce Impact)

   • Only collect what's needed (don't store credit cards - Stripe does)
   • Anonymize analytics (aggregate data, remove PII)
   • Result: If breached, less sensitive data exposed

3. Incident Response Plan (Reduce Impact)

   • Playbook: If breach detected, notify clients within 72 hours (GDPR requirement)
   • PR strategy: Transparent communication, steps we're taking
   • Legal: Engage attorney immediately (guide us through liability)

4. Cyber Insurance (Transfer Risk)

   • Cyber Liability insurance: $500K coverage ($800/year)
   • Covers: Breach notification costs, legal fees, regulatory fines
   • Result: Limit out-of-pocket costs to deductible ($5K-$10K)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Failed login attempts (if spike, could be brute-force attack)
• Security scan results (quarterly Snyk reports - track vulnerabilities)
• Compliance audits (annual SOC 2 by Year 3 - pass = good security)

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👥 PEOPLE & ORGANIZATION RISKS

RISK 13: Can't Hire Quality Talent (Senior Coach)

Description: Post job, get 50 applicants, none meet bar (need 4.5+ coach)

Probability: 3 (Possible) - Great coaches are rare, competitive market Impact: 4 (Major) - Can't scale beyond 30 clients, growth stalls Risk Score: 12 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Recruitment Pipeline (Reduce)

   • Start sourcing 6 months before need hire (Q1 2027, not Q3 when desperate)
   • Build relationships with top coaches (coffee chats, no pressure)
   • Result: When ready to hire, have 3-5 warm candidates

2. Compelling Offer (Reduce)

   • Competitive comp: $100K+ (top 25% for coaches)
   • Equity: 2% (if exit at $5M = $100K bonus)
   • Culture: Autonomy, learning, mission-driven
   • Result: Attract A-players, not B-players

3. Poach from Competitors (Reduce)

   • Identify top Vistage chairs, EO facilitators (they know our market)
   • Offer better: More $ + equity + tech platform (vs legacy model)
   • Result: Hire proven talent, not unproven

4. Contract Coach Network (Backup Plan)

   • If can't hire FTE, contract 2-3 coaches (1099, not W2)
   • Pay $100-150/hour (deliver specific workshops, sessions)
   • Result: Scale delivery without full-time commitment

Monitoring Indicators:

• Application quality (if <10% meet bar, job description unclear)
• Offer acceptance rate (if <75%, comp or culture not competitive)
• Time to hire (if >90 days, process too slow)

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RISK 14: Key Employee Leaves (Senior Coach Quits)

Description: Senior Coach gets better offer, quits with 30 days notice, 20 clients reassigned

Probability: 3 (Possible) - Turnover is normal (avg 15% annually in services) Impact: 3 (Moderate) - Scramble to cover clients, some churn Risk Score: 9 (MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Retention (Reduce Probability)

   • Pay market rate (annual comp reviews, raise if underpaid)
   • Career path (Coach I → II → Senior → Lead → VP)
   • Culture (bi-weekly 1-on-1s, listen to concerns, act on feedback)
   • Result: Happy employees stay (90%+ retention target)

2. Knowledge Transfer (Reduce Impact)

   • Document everything (playbooks, client notes in CRM)
   • Cross-training (founder shadows Senior Coach occasionally, can step in)
   • Result: If coach leaves, context not lost

3. Client Relationships (Reduce Impact)

   • Quarterly check-ins: Founder meets all clients (not just coach)
   • Community: Clients connected to GBCM brand, not individual coach
   • Result: If coach leaves, 80%+ clients stay (vs 50% if personal attachment)

4. Succession Plan (Backup)

   • Always have 1-2 coaches in pipeline (ongoing recruiting)
   • If resignation, activate Plan B: Hire within 60 days
   • Interim: Founder + contract coaches cover (tough but doable for 60 days)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Employee NPS (annual survey - if <8, at-risk employees)
• Retention rate (if <85%, culture or comp issue)
• Exit interviews (if pattern emerges - e.g., "no growth path" - fix it)

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RISK 15: Founder Incapacitation (Accident, Illness, Death)

Description: Founder hit by bus, in coma for 6 months, business has no leader

Probability: 1 (Rare) - But impact is catastrophic Impact: 5 (Critical) - Business could fold without founder (Year 1-2) Risk Score: 5 (LOW-MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Succession Plan (Reduce Impact)

   • Appoint interim CEO: Senior Coach OR Ops Manager (whoever more capable)
   • Document: "If I'm out >30 days, X person runs company" (in writing)
   • Result: Team knows who's in charge, no chaos

2. Playbooks & SOPs (Reduce Impact)

   • Document every process (sales, delivery, finance)
   • Notion workspace: Anyone can step in and follow playbooks
   • Result: Business can run without founder for 3-6 months

3. Life Insurance (Transfer Financial Risk)

   • Term life insurance: $1M policy ($500/year premium)
   • Beneficiary: Spouse/family (can pay bills for 2-3 years while sell business)
   • Result: Family protected financially

4. Disability Insurance (Transfer Income Risk)

   • Long-term disability: Pays 60% of salary if disabled >90 days
   • Cost: $200/month ($2,400/year)
   • Result: Founder's family has income even if can't work

Monitoring Indicators:

• Health (annual checkup, maintain fitness - prevention is best mitigation)
• Document staleness (if playbooks not updated in 6+ months, refresh)

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⚖️ LEGAL & COMPLIANCE RISKS

RISK 16: Client Lawsuit (Professional Liability)

Description: Client claims "GBCM gave bad advice, lost $100K, suing for damages"

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - Haven't had lawsuit in 20 years, but always possible Impact: 4 (Major) - Legal fees $25K-$50K, settlement $50K-$100K, reputation hit Risk Score: 8 (LOW-MEDIUM)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Disclaimer & Limits of Liability (Reduce Liability)

   • Contract clause: "GBCM provides coaching, not guarantees. Client makes own decisions."
   • Liability cap: "Total liability limited to fees paid (max $60K)"
   • Result: Hard to sue for $100K when contract says max $60K liability

2. Quality Delivery (Reduce Probability)

   • High client satisfaction (4.5+ ratings = happy clients don't sue)
   • Document everything (if sued, can prove we gave good advice)
   • Result: Fewer lawsuits, better defense if sued

3. Professional Liability Insurance (E&O) (Transfer Risk)

   • Coverage: $1M ($1,200/year premium)
   • Covers: Legal defense + settlement/judgment
   • Result: Insurance pays, not founder's personal assets

4. Early Conflict Resolution (Reduce)

   • If client unhappy, address immediately (don't let fester)
   • Offer refund (lose $20K fee vs $100K lawsuit)
   • Result: Resolve 90% of conflicts before lawyer involved

Monitoring Indicators:

• Client complaints (if >3/year, investigate root cause)
• NPS Detractors (if >10%, systemic dissatisfaction)
• Legal threats (if any "I'm calling my lawyer" comments, escalate to CEO immediately)

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RISK 17: Regulatory Compliance Violation (GDPR, CCPA)

Description: Accidentally violate data privacy law, regulator fines $50K+

Probability: 2 (Unlikely) - We're compliant, but laws are complex Impact: 3 (Moderate) - $50K fine, legal fees, bad press Risk Score: 6 (LOW)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Compliance Framework (Reduce)

   • GDPR checklist: 20 requirements (consent, portability, erasure, etc.)
   • Annual audit: Legal counsel reviews privacy policy, practices
   • Result: Catch violations before regulator does

2. Privacy by Design (Reduce)

   • Build compliance into platform (not bolted on later)
   • Example: "Delete account" button (easy for users to exercise rights)
   • Result: Compliance is automatic, not manual

3. Legal Counsel (Reduce)

   • Retainer attorney (call when unsure about law)
   • Example: "Can we send marketing emails to webinar attendees?" → Ask lawyer
   • Result: Avoid accidental violations

Monitoring Indicators:

• Regulatory changes (if GDPR updated, review compliance)
• User complaints (if anyone says "You violated my privacy!", investigate immediately)
• Audit findings (if annual audit finds gaps, fix within 30 days)

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🌍 EXTERNAL & MACRO RISKS

RISK 18: AI Disruption (AI Replaces Human Coaches)

Description: 2028, GPT-6 is so good, clients prefer $50/month AI-only vs $1,000/month hybrid

Probability: 3 (Possible) - AI is improving fast (10x better every 2-3 years) Impact: 5 (Critical) - Entire business model obsolete Risk Score: 15 (HIGH)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Embrace AI (Reduce)

   • We're already AI-first (AI Success Coach™)
   • Stay ahead: Upgrade to GPT-5, GPT-6 as released
   • Result: We ARE the AI disruption, not victim of it

2. Human + AI Hybrid (Reduce)

   • Focus on what humans do best: Empathy, accountability, customization
   • AI handles: Routine questions, content delivery, progress tracking
   • Result: Complement each other (not compete)

3. Pivot to B2B2B (Pivot if Needed)

   • If AI commoditizes coaching, sell AI platform to other coaches
   • "White-label AI Coach™ for your coaching business ($500/month)"
   • Result: We become SaaS company, not coaching company

Monitoring Indicators:

• AI capability (test GPT-5 when released - can it replace human coaches?)
• Client feedback (if clients say "AI is good enough, don't need 1-on-1s", warning sign)
• Industry trend (if 5+ competitors go AI-only successfully, consider pivot)

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RISK 19: Pandemic / Force Majeure (COVID-like Event)

Description: 2027 pandemic, can't hold in-person events, clients cut budgets

Probability: 1 (Rare) - Once-in-100-year event (but just happened 2020) Impact: 3 (Moderate) - GBCM is 80% virtual, so less affected than in-person businesses Risk Score: 3 (LOW)

Mitigation Strategies:

1. Virtual-First Model (Already Mitigated)

   • 80% of delivery is already online (workshops, coaching, AI, platform)
   • Only 20% in-person (quarterly sessions, annual offsite)
   • Result: Pandemic ≠ business shutdown (vs 2020 when Zoom coaching wasn't proven)

2. Flexible Delivery (Reduce)

   • In-person events canceled? Switch to virtual (already have tech)
   • Zero switching cost (clients already use Zoom)

3. Recession-Proof Positioning (Reduce)

   • See RISK 3 strategies (cash reserves, essential positioning)

Monitoring Indicators:

• Public health alerts (if WHO declares new pandemic, activate contingency plan)
• Client cancellations (if spike in "postponing coaching due to X", investigate cause)

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🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

Quarterly Risk Review Process

Schedule: Last Friday of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (4× per year)

Agenda (90 minutes):

1. Review Existing Risks (30 min)

   • Are probabilities/impacts still accurate?
   • Update risk scores
   • Mark resolved risks as closed

2. Identify New Risks (20 min)

   • Brainstorm: What keeps me up at night?
   • Industry changes, competitor moves, internal issues

3. Prioritize Top 5 Risks (10 min)

   • Focus on highest risk scores (15-25)
   • These get active mitigation plans

4. Update Mitigation Plans (20 min)

   • For each Top 5 risk: What are we doing? What more should we do?
   • Assign owners, deadlines

5. Review Monitoring Indicators (10 min)

   • Are we tracking the right metrics?
   • Any indicators flashing red?

Documentation: Update Risk Register (Notion page with all risks tracked)

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Risk Register (Dashboard)

Format: Notion database with fields:

• Risk ID (R1, R2, R3...)
• Risk Description
• Category (Market, Operational, Financial, Tech, People, Legal, External)
• Probability (1-5)
• Impact (1-5)
• Risk Score (P × I)
• Mitigation Plan
• Owner (who's responsible)
• Status (Open, Monitoring, Mitigated, Closed)
• Last Reviewed (date)

Example Entry:

ID: R7
Description: Cash flow crisis Year 1
Category: Financial
Probability: 3
Impact: 5
Risk Score: 15 (HIGH)
Mitigation:
  1. Conservative projections (done)
  2. Milestone-based spending (ongoing)
  3. Flexible cost structure (done)
  4. Emergency plan ($20K backup) (ready)
Owner: Founder (Gregory)
Status: Monitoring
Last Reviewed: 2026-03-28

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Crisis Response Protocols

Definition of Crisis: Event causing >$50K immediate loss OR existential threat

Examples:

• Major client lawsuit ($100K+ claim)
• Platform hacked, data breached
• Founder hospitalized >30 days
• Pandemic shuts down economy

Crisis Response Team:

• Leader: Founder (if available) OR Senior Coach (if founder incapacitated)
• Members: All team members + external advisors (attorney, CPA, insurance broker)

Response Steps:

1. Assess (Hour 1): What happened? How bad? Who's affected?
2. Contain (Hours 2-6): Stop the bleeding (e.g., take platform offline if hacked)
3. Communicate (Day 1): Tell clients, team, stakeholders (transparency)
4. Mitigate (Days 2-7): Execute response plan (e.g., legal defense, PR)
5. Recover (Weeks 2-8): Return to normal operations
6. Learn (Month 2): Post-mortem, prevent recurrence

Communication Templates (Pre-Written):

• Data breach notification (GDPR-compliant)
• Platform outage update
• Financial difficulty (if need to ask clients for patience)

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📊 TOP 10 RISKS SUMMARY (Prioritized)

Rank	Risk	Score	Category	Status
1	Market Saturation	16	Market	Mitigating (niche focus, AI differentiation)
2	Founder Burnout	16	People	Mitigating (boundaries, delegation, automation)
3	Cash Flow Crisis (Y1)	15	Financial	Monitoring (weekly cash review, buffer)
4	Recession / Economic Downturn	15	External	Prepared (diversification, reserves, pivot plan)
5	AI Disruption	15	External	Embracing (we're AI-first, continuous upgrade)
6	Service Quality Decline (Scaling)	12	Operational	Monitoring (quality metrics, training, SOPs)
7	Well-Funded Competitor	12	Market	Monitoring (first-mover, relationship moat)
8	Can't Hire Quality Talent	12	People	Mitigating (pipeline, compelling offer, backup)
9	Key Client Churn	10	Operational	Mitigating (diversification, engagement tracking)
10	AI Coach Bad Advice	10	Technology	Mitigating (oversight, disclaimers, insurance)

Overall Risk Profile: MEDIUM-HIGH (Year 1 is riskiest, de-risks over time)

Trend: Risks decrease as business matures

• Year 1: HIGH risk (unproven model, thin cash, solo founder)
• Year 2: MEDIUM risk (validated model, team, cashflow+)
• Year 3: LOW-MEDIUM risk (profitable, diversified, established brand)

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📌 CONCLUSION

GBCM LLC face des risques significatifs (comme toute startup), mais avec des stratégies de mitigation proactives:

✅ Market Risks: Différenciation claire (AI, méthodologies, niche focus) ✅ Operational Risks: Processes, metrics, quality controls ✅ Financial Risks: Conservative projections, cash buffers, flexible costs ✅ Technology Risks: Redundancy, security, insurance ✅ People Risks: Retention strategies, succession plans, documentation ✅ Legal Risks: Strong contracts, insurance, compliance framework ✅ External Risks: Adaptability (AI-first, virtual-first, recession pivots)

Key Success Factor: Vigilance - Review risks quarterly, monitor indicators, adapt plans as needed

Next: Section 13 - Milestones & KPIs

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© 2025 GBCM LLC - Business Plan v2.0 | Risk Analysis & Mitigation