# 10. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS (2026-2028)

## 10.1 Assumptions Clés

### Revenue Assumptions

**MODÈLE BI-CONTINENTAL**: US + AFRIQUE

**Marchés géographiques**:
- **An 1**: 67% US ($130K) + 33% Afrique ($50K) = $180K total
- **An 2**: 59% US ($270K) + 41% Afrique ($150K) = $420K total
- **An 3**: 64% US ($550K) + 36% Afrique ($300K) = $850K total

**TRANSFORM Programs**:

*Marché US*:
- Growth tier: 4 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$8,997/an
- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 10 An 3, @$23,997/an
- Transform tier: 1 client An 1 → 3 An 3, @$59,997/an
- Renewal rate: 70% An 2, 80% An 3

*Marché Afrique* (Pricing PPP-adjusted: -50%):
- Growth tier: 3 clients An 1 → 12 An 3, @$4,997/an
- Scale tier: 2 clients An 1 → 8 An 3, @$11,997/an
- Transform tier: 0 clients An 1 → 2 An 3, @$29,997/an
- Renewal rate: 65% An 2, 75% An 3 (légèrement inférieur)

**ADVISORY Retainers**:
- US: $10,000/mois × 6 mois engagement
- Africa: $3,500/mois × 6 mois engagement
- Clients: 1 US An 1, 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3
- Renewal/extension: 50%

**ACCELERATOR Intensives**:
- US: $25,000/participant
- Africa: $12,000/participant
- Cohorts: 1 US An 1 (3-4 participants), 2 US + 1 Africa An 2, 2 US + 2 Africa An 3

**PLATFORM Membership**:
- US: $2,997/an
- Africa: $1,497/an
- Members: 20 US + 10 Africa An 1, 65 US + 35 Africa An 2, 90 US + 60 Africa An 3
- Churn: 30% An 1, 25% An 2, 20% An 3

### Cost Assumptions

**Personnel** (% of revenue):
- An 1: 48% (Founder + VA + part-time)
- An 2: 62% (adds Director + Sales Manager + FT Marketing)
- An 3: 60% (adds 2 coaches + Ops Manager, economy of scale)

**Marketing**:
- An 1: $50,000 (28% revenue) - heavy investment launch bi-continental
- An 2: $80,000 (19% revenue) - scale channels US + Africa
- An 3: $120,000 (14% revenue) - optimize & expand + anglophone Africa

**Technology** (via Lions Dev partnership):
- **An 1**: $30,000 (17% revenue) - MVP plateforme + SaaS tools
  - Lions Dev: $20,000 (développement MVP)
  - SaaS Stack: $8,000 (HubSpot, Zoom, etc.)
  - Security/Compliance: $2,000
- **An 2**: $65,000 (15% revenue) - évolutions + scale
  - Lions Dev: $30,000 (features + intégrations)
  - SaaS Stack: $15,000 (plus d'utilisateurs)
  - Security/Compliance: $5,000
  - IA/ML Infrastructure (début): $15,000
- **An 3**: $115,000 (14% revenue) - IA integration Phase 2
  - Lions Dev: $45,000 (IA + automation)
  - SaaS Stack: $25,000 (scale)
  - Security/Compliance: $10,000
  - IA/ML Infrastructure: $35,000

**Économies vs plan initial**: -$60,000 sur 3 ans (repositionnement IA à Phase 2)

**Other Opex**: 12-15% revenue (office, insurance, legal, misc)

---

## 10.2 Profit & Loss (Income Statement)

### Year 1 (2026) - Detailed

#### Revenue Breakdown (Modèle Bi-Continental)

**TRANSFORM Programs**:

| Marché | Tier | Clients | Price | Revenue |
|--------|------|---------|-------|---------|
| **US** | Growth | 4 | $8,997 | $35,988 |
| | Scale | 2 | $23,997 | $47,994 |
| | Transform | 1 | $59,997 | $59,997 |
| **Subtotal US** | | **7** | | **$143,979** |
| | | | | |
| **AFRICA** | Growth | 3 | $4,997 | $14,991 |
| | Scale | 2 | $11,997 | $23,994 |
| | Transform | 0 | $29,997 | $0 |
| **Subtotal AFRICA** | | **5** | | **$38,985** |
| | | | | |
| **TOTAL TRANSFORM** | | **12** | | **$182,964** |

**ADVISORY Retainers**:

| Marché | Clients | Durée | Taux mensuel | Revenue |
|--------|---------|-------|--------------|---------|
| US | 1 | 6 mois | $10,000 | $60,000 |
| **TOTAL ADVISORY** | **1** | | | **$60,000** |

**ACCELERATOR Intensives**:

| Marché | Cohorts | Participants | Prix/participant | Revenue |
|--------|---------|--------------|------------------|---------|
| US | 1 | 3 | $25,000 | $75,000 |
| **TOTAL ACCELERATOR** | **1** | **3** | | **$75,000** |

**PLATFORM Membership**:

| Marché | Membres (avg) | Prix annuel | Revenue brute | Churn 30% | Revenue nette |
|--------|---------------|-------------|---------------|-----------|---------------|
| US | 20 | $2,997 | $59,940 | -$17,982 | $41,958 |
| Africa | 10 | $1,497 | $14,970 | -$4,491 | $10,479 |
| **TOTAL PLATFORM** | **30** | | **$74,910** | **-$22,473** | **$52,437** |

**TOTAL REVENUE AN 1**: **$370,401** (Upside scenario)

**Baseline Conservative Projection**: **$180,000** (49% attainment rate - très conservateur)

**Répartition géographique (Conservative)**:
- US: $130,000 (72% du baseline)
- Afrique: $50,000 (28% du baseline)

#### Revenue by Quarter (Conservative $180K)

| Quarter | US Revenue | Africa Revenue | Total | Cumulative | Notes |
|---------|------------|----------------|-------|------------|-------|
| Q1 2026 | $12,000 | $3,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | Slow start, 2-3 clients (US + Africa soft launch) |
| Q2 2026 | $27,000 | $8,000 | $35,000 | $50,000 | Momentum US, premiers clients Africa |
| Q3 2026 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $55,000 | $105,000 | Platform launches, retainer US, scale Africa |
| Q4 2026 | $51,000 | $24,000 | $75,000 | $180,000 | Accelerator US, croissance forte Africa |

**Mix géographique par trimestre**:
- Q1: 80% US / 20% Africa (soft launch Africa)
- Q2: 77% US / 23% Africa
- Q3: 73% US / 27% Africa
- Q4: 68% US / 32% Africa
- **Moyenne An 1**: 72% US / 28% Africa

#### Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

| Item | Amount | % Revenue |
|------|--------|-----------|
| Coach/Consultant Contractors (if needed) | $10,000 | 5.6% |
| Platform SaaS costs (per user) | $3,000 | 1.7% |
| Workshop venues/materials | $2,000 | 1.1% |
| **Total COGS** | **$15,000** | **8.3%** |

**Gross Margin**: $165,000 (91.7%)

#### Operating Expenses

| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
| **Payroll & Benefits** | | | |
| - Founder/CEO salary | $60,000 | 33.3% | Below market (reinvesting) |
| - Virtual Assistant (full-time) | $30,000 | 16.7% | Philippines-based |
| - Content Creator (part-time) | $18,000 | 10.0% | Contractor |
| - Payroll taxes (15%) | $16,200 | 9.0% | |
| **Subtotal Payroll** | **$124,200** | **69.0%** | |
| | | | |
| **Marketing & Sales** | | | |
| - Digital advertising | $20,000 | 11.1% | Google, LinkedIn ads |
| - Content production | $10,000 | 5.6% | Video, blog, podcast |
| - Events & networking | $8,000 | 4.4% | Speaking, conferences |
| - SEO & website | $7,000 | 3.9% | Agency + tools |
| - Other marketing | $5,000 | 2.8% | Misc |
| **Subtotal Marketing** | **$50,000** | **27.8%** | |
| | | | |
| **Technology** (via Lions Dev partnership) | | | |
| - Lions Dev MVP Platform | $20,000 | 11.1% | Développement plateforme custom |
| - SaaS stack | $8,000 | 4.4% | HubSpot, Zoom, tools |
| - Security & Compliance | $2,000 | 1.1% | SSL, backup, monitoring |
| **Subtotal Technology** | **$30,000** | **16.7%** | |
| | | | |
| **General & Administrative** | | | |
| - Office/coworking | $6,000 | 3.3% | Flexible space |
| - Insurance | $4,000 | 2.2% | Liability, E&O |
| - Legal & accounting | $8,000 | 4.4% | Corp + bookkeeping |
| - Travel | $5,000 | 2.8% | Client meetings, events |
| - Misc/contingency | $5,000 | 2.8% | Buffer |
| **Subtotal G&A** | **$28,000** | **15.6%** | |
| | | | |
| **TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES** | **$232,200** | **129.0%** | |

**Économies Tech**: -$5,000 vs plan original (grâce à Lions Dev partnership)

#### Year 1 Bottom Line

| Metric | Amount | % Revenue |
|--------|--------|-----------|
| **Revenue** | $180,000 | 100.0% |
| - US | $130,000 | 72.2% |
| - Africa | $50,000 | 27.8% |
| **COGS** | -$15,000 | 8.3% |
| **Gross Profit** | $165,000 | 91.7% |
| **Operating Expenses** | -$232,200 | 129.0% |
| **EBITDA** | **-$67,200** | **-37.3%** |
| **Interest** | $0 | 0.0% |
| **Taxes** | $0 | 0.0% |
| **NET INCOME** | **-$67,200** | **-37.3%** |

**Analysis**:
- Perte An 1 attendue (année d'investissement bi-continental)
- Améliorée vs plan initial: -$67K vs -$72K (économie $5K grâce Lions Dev)
- Couverte par $75K capital initial + revenus
- Modèle bi-continental ajoute complexité mais diversifie risque

**Break-even**: Mois 14-15 (Q2 An 2) quand base clients scale sur deux marchés.

---

### Year 2 (2027) - Summary

#### Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental)

| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
|---------|------------|------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|--------|
| **TRANSFORM Programs** | 18 | $240,000 | 10 | $90,000 | $330,000 | +80% |
| **ADVISORY Retainers** | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 1 (avg) | $21,000 | $141,000 | +135% |
| **ACCELERATOR Intensives** | 6 part. | $150,000 | 4 part. | $48,000 | $198,000 | +164% |
| **PLATFORM Membership** | 65 avg | $145,000 | 35 avg | $37,000 | $182,000 | +247% |
| **TOTAL** | | **$655,000** | | **$196,000** | **$851,000** | **+373%** |

**Conservative Projection Used**: **$420,000** (49% of potential)
- US: $270,000 (64%)
- Africa: $150,000 (36%)

**Répartition géographique An 2**: 64% US / 36% Africa (croissance forte Africa)

#### Expenses Summary

| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
| COGS | $35,000 | 8.3% | Scale légèrement |
| **Gross Profit** | **$385,000** | **91.7%** | |
| Payroll | $240,000 | 57.1% | +Director, Sales, Marketing FT |
| Marketing | $80,000 | 19.0% | Scale US + Africa |
| **Technology** (Lions Dev) | **$65,000** | **15.5%** | **Évolutions + début IA** |
| - Lions Dev | $30,000 | 7.1% | Features + intégrations |
| - SaaS Stack | $15,000 | 3.6% | Plus d'utilisateurs |
| - Security | $5,000 | 1.2% | Compliance renforcée |
| - IA/ML (début Phase 2) | $15,000 | 3.6% | Infrastructure IA |
| G&A | $45,000 | 10.7% | Scale opérations |
| **Total Opex** | **$430,000** | **102.4%** | |
| **EBITDA** | **-$45,000** | **-10.7%** | |
| **NET INCOME** | **-$45,000** | **-10.7%** | |

**Analysis**:
- Perte An 2 plus importante que prévu original (investissement Tech +$25K pour IA)
- Investissement stratégique dans Phase 2 IA (2027 début)
- Croissance forte Africa justifie investissement
- Break-even prévu Q3-Q4 An 2 avec scaling

---

### Year 3 (2028) - Summary

#### Revenue by Service Line (Bi-Continental Mature)

| Service | US Clients | US Revenue | Africa Clients | Africa Revenue | Total Revenue | Growth |
|---------|------------|------------|----------------|----------------|---------------|--------|
| **TRANSFORM Programs** | 23 | $450,000 | 22 | $180,000 | $630,000 | +91% |
| **ADVISORY Retainers** | 2 (avg) | $120,000 | 2 (avg) | $42,000 | $162,000 | +15% |
| **ACCELERATOR Intensives** | 8 part. | $200,000 | 8 part. | $96,000 | $296,000 | +49% |
| **PLATFORM Membership** | 90 avg | $200,000 | 60 avg | $65,000 | $265,000 | +46% |
| **TOTAL** | | **$970,000** | | **$383,000** | **$1,353,000** | **+59%** |

**Conservative Projection Used**: **$850,000** (63% of potential)
- US: $550,000 (65%)
- Africa: $300,000 (35%)

**Répartition géographique An 3**: 65% US / 35% Africa (équilibre mature)

#### Expenses Summary

| Category | Amount | % Revenue | Notes |
|----------|--------|-----------|-------|
| COGS | $70,000 | 8.2% | Scale bi-continental |
| **Gross Profit** | **$780,000** | **91.8%** | |
| Payroll | $425,000 | 50.0% | +2 coaches, Ops Manager |
| Marketing | $120,000 | 14.1% | Optimize + expansion anglophone |
| **Technology** (Lions Dev + IA) | **$115,000** | **13.5%** | **Full IA Phase 2** |
| - Lions Dev | $45,000 | 5.3% | IA integration + automation |
| - SaaS Stack | $25,000 | 2.9% | Enterprise scale |
| - Security | $10,000 | 1.2% | Compliance multi-pays |
| - IA/ML Infrastructure | $35,000 | 4.1% | Full IA deployment |
| G&A | $75,000 | 8.8% | Scale mature |
| **Total Opex** | **$735,000** | **86.5%** | |
| **EBITDA** | **$45,000** | **5.3%** | |
| **Taxes (25%)** | -$11,250 | 1.3% | |
| **NET INCOME** | **$33,750** | **4.0%** | |

**Analysis**:
- **Profitable An 3** malgré investissement IA massif ($50K)
- Marges plus serrées que prévu initial (4% vs 9.7%) à cause de Tech investment
- Investissement IA = pari sur croissance An 4-5 (automation + scale)
- Modèle bi-continental mature: 65/35 US/Africa
- **An 4 projection**: Marges remontent à 15-20% quand IA déployée (économies d'échelle)

---

## 10.3 Three-Year P&L Summary (Modèle Bi-Continental + Lions Dev)

| | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| **REVENUE** | $180,000 | $420,000 | $850,000 |
| - US | $130,000 (72%) | $270,000 (64%) | $550,000 (65%) |
| - Africa | $50,000 (28%) | $150,000 (36%) | $300,000 (35%) |
| COGS | $15,000 | $35,000 | $70,000 |
| **GROSS PROFIT** | $165,000 | $385,000 | $780,000 |
| **Gross Margin %** | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% |
| | | | |
| Payroll | $124,200 | $240,000 | $425,000 |
| Marketing | $50,000 | $80,000 | $120,000 |
| **Technology (Lions Dev)** | **$30,000** | **$65,000** | **$115,000** |
| G&A | $28,000 | $45,000 | $75,000 |
| **Operating Expenses** | $232,200 | $430,000 | $735,000 |
| **EBITDA** | **-$67,200** | **-$45,000** | **$45,000** |
| **EBITDA Margin %** | **-37.3%** | **-10.7%** | **5.3%** |
| | | | |
| Taxes | $0 | $0 | $11,250 |
| **NET INCOME** | **-$67,200** | **-$45,000** | **$33,750** |
| **Net Margin %** | **-37.3%** | **-10.7%** | **4.0%** |

**Notes importantes**:
- **Modèle bi-continental** ajoute complexité mais diversifie revenus et risque
- **Technology costs higher** An 2-3 (Phase 2 IA: +$50K investissement total)
- **Profitability An 3 réduite** vs plan initial (4% vs 9.7%) due à investissement IA stratégique
- **Lions Dev revenues** via GBCM: $40-50K An 1, $110-150K An 2, $225-345K An 3 (total $375-545K)
- **Break-even** Q3-Q4 An 2, puis profitabilité croissante
- **An 4+ projection**: Marges 15-20% quand IA deployed + scaling economies

---

## 10.4 Cash Flow Statement

### Year 1 Cash Flow (Bi-Continental Launch)

| Category | Amount | Notes |
|----------|--------|-------|
| **Operating Activities** | | |
| Net Income | -$67,200 | Amélioration vs initial (-$72K) |
| Add: Non-cash expenses | $0 | No depreciation An 1 |
| Changes in Working Capital | $15,000 | Prepayments from clients (US + Africa) |
| **Cash from Operations** | **-$52,200** | |
| | | |
| **Investing Activities** | | |
| Platform development (Lions Dev) | -$20,000 | MVP custom (vs $35K initial) |
| SaaS prepayments (annual) | -$8,000 | Discounts for annual prepay |
| Equipment/furniture | -$3,000 | Laptop, office basics |
| **Cash from Investing** | **-$31,000** | |
| | | |
| **Financing Activities** | | |
| Founder capital injection | $75,000 | Initial investment |
| Loans | $0 | Bootstrap |
| **Cash from Financing** | **$75,000** | |
| | | |
| **NET CASH FLOW** | **-$8,200** | |
| Beginning Cash | $0 | |
| **Ending Cash** | **-$8,200** | |

**Analysis**:
- **Amélioration significative** vs plan initial: -$8K vs -$20K cash flow
- **Lions Dev partnership** économise $15K cash An 1 (MVP moins cher)
- **$75K capital suffisant** pour An 1 avec buffer confortable
- Modèle bi-continental n'augmente pas cash needs An 1

### Year 2-3 Cash Flow Summary

| | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash from Operations | -$20,000 | $70,000 |
| Cash from Investing | -$35,000 | -$50,000 |
| Cash from Financing | $0 | $0 |
| **Net Cash Flow** | **-$55,000** | **$20,000** |
| Beginning Cash | -$8,200 | -$63,200 |
| **Ending Cash** | **-$63,200** | **-$43,200** |

**Analysis Cash Flow**:
- **Year 2**: Cash flow négatif à cause investissements Tech IA ($65K total)
- **Year 3**: Cash flow positif malgré investissement massif IA ($115K)
- **Besoin capital additionnel An 2**: ~$50-60K pour couvrir investments IA
- **Options financement An 2**:
  - Ligne de crédit $50K
  - Pré-vente clients (advance payments)
  - Revenue-based financing
- **An 3 onwards**: Cash flow positif et croissant avec IA deployed

---

## 10.5 Lions Dev Revenue Projections (Partenaire Stratégique)

### Modèle Économique Lions Dev via GBCM

**Structure**:
1. **Contrats au forfait** - GBCM paie Lions Dev pour développement plateforme
2. **Commission sur projets clients** - Lions Dev reçoit 10-15% des revenus projets tech clients GBCM
3. **Recurring maintenance** - Contrats mensuels maintenance après go-live

### Revenus Lions Dev projetés

| Source | An 1 (2026) | An 2 (2027) | An 3 (2028) | Total 3 ans |
|--------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
| **GBCM Direct** (plateforme) | $20,000 | $30,000 | $45,000 | $95,000 |
| **Projets Clients** (3-4 An 1) | $20-30K | $80-120K | $180-300K | $280-450K |
| - Commission moyenne | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| **Maintenance** (recurring) | $0 | $5,000 | $15,000 | $20,000 |
| **TOTAL Lions Dev** | **$40-50K** | **$115-155K** | **$240-360K** | **$395-565K** |

**Breakdown projets clients**:
- **An 1**: 3-4 projets @ $7-10K moyenne = $20-30K
- **An 2**: 10-12 projets @ $8-12K moyenne = $80-120K
- **An 3**: 20-25 projets @ $9-15K moyenne = $180-300K

### Impact sur les deux entreprises

| Métrique | GBCM | Lions Dev |
|----------|------|-----------|
| **Revenus 3 ans** | $1,450K | $395-565K |
| **Tech costs GBCM** | -$210K (vs $270K initial) | +$210K revenues tech |
| **Synergies** | Économie $60K, tech expert | Pipeline projets garanti |
| **Risque** | Dépendance 1 vendor | Dépendance 1 gros client |
| **Mitigation** | SLA stricts, backup plan | Diversifier clients hors GBCM |

**Win-Win**:
- GBCM: Tech de qualité, coûts optimisés, partenaire local Afrique (Abidjan)
- Lions Dev: $400-550K revenues garantis 3 ans, showcase clients B2B, expansion US

---

## 10.6 Balance Sheet (Simplified)

### Year 1

| ASSETS | Amount |
|--------|--------|
| Cash | -$20,000 |
| Accounts Receivable | $25,000 |
| Prepaid Expenses | $5,000 |
| **Total Current Assets** | $10,000 |
| | |
| Platform (capitalized) | $35,000 |
| Equipment | $3,000 |
| Less: Depreciation | $0 |
| **Total Fixed Assets** | $38,000 |
| | |
| **TOTAL ASSETS** | $48,000 |

| LIABILITIES & EQUITY | Amount |
|---------------------|--------|
| Accounts Payable | $15,000 |
| Accrued Expenses | $10,000 |
| **Total Current Liabilities** | $25,000 |
| | |
| Long-term Debt | $0 |
| **Total Liabilities** | $25,000 |
| | |
| Owner's Equity | $75,000 |
| Retained Earnings | -$52,000 |
| **Total Equity** | $23,000 |
| | |
| **TOTAL LIABILITIES & EQUITY** | $48,000 |

---

## 10.6 Key Financial Metrics

### Unit Economics (Per Client)

#### TRANSFORM Programs (Average)

| Metric | Growth | Scale | Transform |
|--------|--------|-------|-----------|
| Price | $8,997 | $23,997 | $59,997 |
| COGS | $720 | $1,920 | $4,800 |
| **Gross Profit** | $8,277 | $22,077 | $55,197 |
| **Gross Margin** | 92% | 92% | 92% |
| | | | |
| CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) | $1,500 | $2,500 | $5,000 |
| Onboarding Cost | $500 | $1,000 | $2,000 |
| **Total Acquisition** | $2,000 | $3,500 | $7,000 |
| | | | |
| **Contribution Margin** | $6,277 | $18,577 | $48,197 |
| **LTV (3 year, 60% retention)** | $16,200 | $43,200 | $108,000 |
| **LTV:CAC Ratio** | 8:1 | 12:1 | 15:1 |

**Analysis**: Excellent unit economics across all tiers. Healthy LTV:CAC (target >3:1, achieved 8-15:1).

#### PLATFORM Membership

| Metric | Amount |
|--------|--------|
| Annual Price | $2,997 |
| COGS (hosting, support) | $150 |
| **Gross Profit** | $2,847 |
| **Gross Margin** | 95% |
| | |
| CAC | $100 |
| **Contribution Margin Yr 1** | $2,747 |
| **LTV (3 years, 25% churn)** | $6,700 |
| **LTV:CAC Ratio** | 67:1 |

**Analysis**: Outstanding economics if churn controlled. Pure scale play.

---

### Profitability Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Gross Margin** | 91.7% | 91.7% | 91.8% | >85% ✅ |
| **EBITDA Margin** | -40.1% | -4.8% | 12.9% | >15% An 3 ❌ |
| **Net Margin** | -40.1% | -4.8% | 9.7% | >10% An 3 ❌ |
| **ROE** | N/A | N/A | 359% | >30% ✅ |

**Note**: Margins intentionally low An 1-2 (investment phase). An 3 close to target, An 4 expect >20%.

### Efficiency Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| **Revenue per Employee** | $60K | $70K | $106K |
| **Payroll as % Revenue** | 69% | 57% | 50% |
| **CAC Payback Period** | 2 months | 1.5 months | 1 month |
| **Cash Conversion Cycle** | 30 days | 20 days | 15 days |

---

## 10.7 Scenario Analysis (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)

### Conservative (Baseline in Projections)

| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
| 1 | $180,000 | $130K (72%) | $50K (28%) | -$67,200 | -$67,200 |
| 2 | $420,000 | $270K (64%) | $150K (36%) | -$45,000 | -$45,000 |
| 3 | $850,000 | $550K (65%) | $300K (35%) | $45,000 | $33,750 |

**Assumptions**:
- 50% client acquisition targets
- Higher churn (30% An 1, 25% An 2)
- Slower ramp Africa (soft launch An 1)
- Full IA investment An 2-3 ($50K)

### Realistic (50% Probability)

| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
| 1 | $280,000 | $200K (71%) | $80K (29%) | -$30,000 | -$30,000 |
| 2 | $650,000 | $420K (65%) | $230K (35%) | $80,000 | $60,000 |
| 3 | $1,200,000 | $780K (65%) | $420K (35%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |

**Assumptions**:
- 75% client acquisition targets
- Industry-standard churn (25% An 1, 20% An 2)
- Forte croissance Africa An 2-3
- IA déployée début An 3, impacts positifs

### Optimistic (20% Probability)

| Year | Revenue | US | Africa | EBITDA | Net Income |
|------|---------|-------|---------|--------|------------|
| 1 | $375,000 | $265K (71%) | $110K (29%) | $25,000 | $18,750 |
| 2 | $850,000 | $545K (64%) | $305K (36%) | $200,000 | $150,000 |
| 3 | $1,600,000 | $1,040K (65%) | $560K (35%) | $400,000 | $300,000 |

**Assumptions**:
- Full client targets achieved (100% An 1)
- Best-in-class retention/referrals (<20% churn)
- Africa explosive growth (3x vs conservative)
- IA déployée mi-An 2, ROI immédiat
- Platform membership viral (200+ members An 3)

---

## 10.8 Break-Even Analysis

### Break-Even Calculation (Monthly)

**Fixed Costs** (monthly average An 1):
- Payroll: $10,350
- Marketing: $4,167
- Technology: $2,917
- G&A: $2,333
- **Total Fixed**: $19,767/month

**Variable Costs**: ~8% of revenue (COGS)

**Contribution Margin**: 92% (after variable costs)

**Break-Even Revenue** = Fixed Costs ÷ Contribution Margin
= $19,767 ÷ 0.92
= **$21,486/month**

**Break-Even in Clients**:
- 2-3 TRANSFORM clients (depending on tier)
- OR 1 ADVISORY retainer
- OR 1 Accelerator cohort/quarter
- OR 70-80 Platform members

**Timeline to Break-Even**: Month 14-16 (Q2 An 2) in conservative scenario

---

## 10.9 Funding Requirements & Use of Funds

### Capital Required (Modèle Bi-Continental)

**Year 1 Initial**: $75,000
**Year 2 Additional**: $50-60,000 (pour investissements IA Phase 2)
**Total 3 ans**: $125-135,000

#### Use of Funds Breakdown Year 1

| Category | Amount | % | Justification |
|----------|--------|---|---------------|
| **Platform Development** (Lions Dev) | $20,000 | 27% | MVP custom software (6-mois, via Lions Dev partnership) |
| **Marketing & Launch** (Bi-Continental) | $25,000 | 33% | Pre-launch + 6 mois ads US + Africa |
| **Technology Setup** (SaaS + Tools) | $10,000 | 13% | HubSpot, Zoom, hosting, security (annual prepay) |
| **Legal & Formation** (Multi-pays) | $10,000 | 13% | LLC US, compliance Africa, contracts |
| **Working Capital** | $10,000 | 13% | Buffer 2-3 mois runway bi-continental |
| **TOTAL** | **$75,000** | **100%** | |

**Économies vs plan initial**: Lions Dev partnership réduit Platform Dev de $35K → $20K (-$15K)

#### Use of Funds Year 2 (Additionnel)

| Category | Amount | Justification |
|----------|--------|---------------|
| **IA/ML Infrastructure** (Phase 2 début) | $15,000 | OpenAI API, cloud compute, data pipeline |
| **Lions Dev - Features IA** | $20,000 | Développement features IA integration |
| **Marketing Scale** (Africa expansion) | $15,000 | Scale Africa francophone + prep anglophone |
| **Working Capital** | $10,000 | Buffer croissance bi-continentale |
| **TOTAL** | **$60,000** | |

### Funding Sources (Recommended)

**AN 1 - Option A: Bootstrap** (Preferred)
- Founder capital: $50,000 (personal investment)
- Early client prepayments: $25,000 (2-3 clients US + 1-2 Africa pre-sold)
- **Pros**: Full ownership, discipline, validation marché
- **Cons**: Limited runway, stress bi-continental

**AN 1 - Option B: Friends & Family**
- Founder: $50,000
- F&F: $25,000 (SAFE note, 15% discount, $1M cap)
- **Pros**: Faster launch bi-continental, buffer Africa
- **Cons**: Outside capital, expectations

**AN 2 - Financing IA Phase 2** ($50-60K needed)
- **Option 1**: Revenue-based financing (8-12% of MRR jusqu'à $75K)
- **Option 2**: Ligne de crédit SBA ($50K @ 8%)
- **Option 3**: Strategic partner (Lions Dev equity stake 5-10% pour $50K)
- **Option 4**: Advance payments clients (pré-vente 5-10 clients An 2)

**Recommendation**:
- **An 1**: Option A (Bootstrap) - validation modèle bi-continental
- **An 2**: Option 1 ou 4 (revenue-based ou advance payments) - évite dilution, aligné croissance

---

## 10.10 Return on Investment (ROI)

### Founder ROI (Modèle Bi-Continental + IA Phase 2)

**Investment**:
- An 1: $75,000 (capital initial)
- An 2: $60,000 (financement IA, assumé dette/RBF)
- **Total**: $135,000 (sur 3 ans)

**Returns** (3-year horizon) - **Modèle révisé avec IA investment**:

| Scenario | Cumulative Profit | Equity Value (3x EBITDA) | Total Return | ROI | IRR |
|----------|-------------------|--------------------------|--------------|-----|-----|
| **Conservative** | **-$79K** | **$135K** (3 × $45K) | **$56K** | **41%** | **12%** |
| **Realistic** | $50K | $450K (3 × $150K) | $500K | 370% | 83% |
| **Optimistic** | $200K | $900K (3 × $300K) | $1,100K | 815% | 142% |

**Payback Period**:
- Conservative: 42+ months (An 4)
- Realistic: 24 months (fin An 2)
- Optimistic: 15 months (mid An 2)

**Analysis nouvelle stratégie**:
- **Conservative scenario moins attractif** court terme (41% ROI vs 427% initial)
- **MAIS**: Investissement IA = **pari sur An 4-5** (automation, scale, margins 15-20%)
- **Realistic/Optimistic** scenarios restent très attractifs (370-815% ROI)
- **Trade-off**: Court terme moins profitable, mais **long terme exponential**
- **An 4 projection** (non montré): $1.5M revenue, 18% EBITDA = $270K, ROI devient >500%

**Comparaison modèles**:

| Métrique | Plan Initial (sans IA) | Nouveau Plan (IA Phase 2) | Différence |
|----------|-------------------------|---------------------------|------------|
| Investment total | $75K | $135K | +$60K |
| An 3 EBITDA (conservative) | $110K | $45K | -$65K |
| An 3 Net Income | $82.5K | $33.7K | -$48.8K |
| ROI 3 ans | 427% | 41% | -386% |
| **An 5 EBITDA (projected)** | **$250K** | **$450K** | **+$200K** |
| **An 5 ROI (projected)** | **700%** | **1,200%** | **+500%** |

**Conclusion ROI**:
- **Si objectif = profitabilité rapide An 3**: Plan initial meilleur
- **Si objectif = scale massif An 4-5 avec IA**: Nouveau plan meilleur
- **Nouveau plan = pari sur technologie** pour unlock croissance exponentielle
- **Bi-continental + IA** = moat plus fort, mais capital-intensive

---

## 10.11 Sensitivity Analysis

### Key Variables Impact on Year 3 EBITDA

| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% |
|----------|------|------|------|------|------|
| **Clients Acquired** | -$50K | $30K | $110K | $190K | $270K |
| **Avg Price** | $10K | $60K | $110K | $160K | $210K |
| **Retention Rate** | $45K | $77K | $110K | $142K | $175K |
| **CAC** | $135K | $122K | $110K | $97K | $85K |
| **Payroll** | $225K | $167K | $110K | $52K | -$5K |

**Most Sensitive to**:
1. Client Acquisition (#1 priority - marketing, sales)
2. Pricing (justify value, upsell higher tiers)
3. Payroll efficiency (hire smart, productivity)

**Least Sensitive to**:
- CAC (within reasonable range $1K-$4K, manageable)
- Retention (strong even at -20%, but optimize for upside)

---

## 10.12 Summary & Financial Health Indicators

### Financial Strength (Year 3) - Modèle Bi-Continental + IA

| Indicator | Value (Nouveau) | Value (Initial) | Benchmark | Status |
|-----------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------|--------|
| **Liquidity** | | | | |
| Cash Balance | -$43K (négatif) | $120K | >3 months opex | ⚠️ Attention |
| Current Ratio | 1.8 | 3.5 | >1.5 | ✅ Acceptable |
| | | | | |
| **Profitability** | | | | |
| Gross Margin | 91.8% | 91.8% | >80% | ✅ Excellent |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.3% | 12.9% | >10% | ⚠️ Below target |
| Net Margin | 4.0% | 9.7% | >8% | ⚠️ Below target |
| | | | | |
| **Efficiency** | | | | |
| Revenue per Employee | $106K | $106K | >$100K | ✅ Strong |
| LTV:CAC (blended US+Africa) | 8-12:1 | 10-15:1 | >3:1 | ✅ Outstanding |
| CAC Payback | 1.5 months | 1 month | <6 months | ✅ Excellent |
| | | | | |
| **Growth** | | | | |
| YoY Revenue Growth | 102% (Y2→Y3) | 102% | >30% | ✅ Exceptional |
| Customer Growth (global) | 89% | 89% | >25% | ✅ Strong |
| Geographic Diversification | 65/35 US/Africa | 100% US | Diverse | ✅ Strong |

**Overall Financial Health**: **MODERATE** ⚠️

**Trade-offs du nouveau modèle**:

| Aspect | ➕ Positif | ➖ Négatif |
|--------|-----------|-----------|
| **Revenus** | Diversification géographique, TAM plus large | Prix Africa -50%, complexity |
| **Profitabilité** | Gross margins excellentes (91.8%) | EBITDA/Net margins serrés (investment IA) |
| **Cash Flow** | Lions Dev partnership économise cash | Besoin $60K additionnel An 2 |
| **Risque** | Diversifié sur 2 continents | Dépendance Lions Dev, complexity Africa |
| **Croissance** | IA unlock scale An 4-5, 2 marchés | Plus lent break-even (Q3-Q4 An 2 vs Q2) |
| **Stratégique** | Moat technologique fort, first-mover Africa | Capital-intensive, execution risk |

### Recommandations Stratégiques

**Court Terme (An 1-2)**:
1. ✅ **Valider product-market fit** US avant scale Africa
2. ✅ **Bootstrap An 1** - minimiser dilution
3. ⚠️ **Monitor cash** - prévoir financing An 2 ($50-60K)
4. ✅ **Lions Dev SLAs** - mitigate vendor dependency

**Moyen Terme (An 2-3)**:
5. ⚠️ **IA ROI critical** - si pas de traction, pivot back to manual
6. ✅ **Scale Africa** - leverage Lions Dev Abidjan presence
7. ✅ **Optimize margins** - target 10%+ EBITDA An 3
8. ⚠️ **Plan An 4 financing** - si scale IA successful, raise $200-500K

**Alternative: Plan Conservateur sans IA An 2**:
- Si cash flow An 2 serré, **reporter IA à An 3-4**
- Focus sur profitabilité An 2 (bootstrap)
- IA Phase 2 conditionné à profitabilité établie

---

**Conclusion Financière**:

Le **modèle bi-continental + IA Phase 2** est:
- ✅ **Viable** si execution excellente
- ⚠️ **Capital-intensive** - besoin $135K sur 3 ans (vs $75K initial)
- ✅ **High-growth potential** - unlock exponential via IA An 4-5
- ⚠️ **Higher risk** - complexity géographique + tech
- ✅ **Strategic moat** - first-mover Africa + tech différentiation

**Pour qui?**: Founder ambitieux, tech-savvy, comfortable avec risk, vision long-terme (5+ ans)

**Alternative safe**: Plan initial US-only, IA Phase 3 - ROI 427% An 3, profitable An 3

---

**NEXT**: [11-funding-strategy.md](./11-funding-strategy.md) - Stratégie de financement détaillée
